eyeQ: what you need to know about Persimmon and macro
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. This time it looks at the giant housebuilder.
12th November 2025 10:53
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
Honours Meadow, a new housing development by Persimmon, in Rendlesham, Suffolk. Photo: Geography Photos/Universal Images Group via Getty Images.
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Persimmon
Macro Relevance: 37%
Model Value: 1,150.51p
Fair Value Gap: +6.99% premium to model value
Data correct as at 12 November 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Homebuilder Persimmon (LSE:PSN) provide a trading update tomorrow.
A year ago, the housing market was central to speculation heading into the Budget. Easing planning restrictions and boosting home construction was integral to the government’s plans to stimulate the economy.
This year, the housing market has hardly been mentioned in the Budget build-up. Will Persimmon provide any clues as to whether this engine of growth is firing?
The good news - after months of deterioration, macro conditions appear to be trying to bottom out. eyeQ model value fell around 20% over Q3 but, since the start of Q4, has edged up 3.5%.
That’s predominantly a function of inflation. eyeQ shows the stock is negatively sensitive to UK inflation expectations, i.e. Persimmon wants price pressures to fall (presumably reflecting the cost-of-living pressure and affordability issues weighing on British home buyers). More recently, the inflation market has re-priced lower and that’s lifted macro model value higher.
The bad news - the stock has run ahead of this tentative improvement in macro conditions. It sits 7% rich on eyeQ. That fair value gap would be enough to trigger a bearish signal if model confidence was high enough. Our macro relevance score is rising but is still only 37%.
That means, first, no bearish signal and, second, tomorrow’s update could be the bigger mover of the share price near term.
Still a reminder that macro - especially the inflation outlook - is an important consideration for investors as they consider exposure to Persimmon.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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