The FTSE has had a decent month so far, but Brexit and election uncertainty overhang this rally.
FTSE for Friday (FTSE:UKX)
The UK market has spent November limping ever higher, though trailing behind other European and US indices. The slow pace, doubtless, is due to nerves over the election and Brexit. There are slight signs of an imminent slowdown on the FTSE 100 and we suspect Friday may show some reversal.
At present, the key number on the FTSE is at 7,285 points. This is the level the market needs to fall below to force us to take reversal seriously.
Unless this number is broken, anything soon is liable to be simply part of a trading range. The other key number is at 7,440 points.
Above this level, the market betters the highs of July, and enters a cycle where growth to 7,494 becomes a near certainty. Secondary calculates at a longer term 7,654 points and visually shall challenge the downtrend since the peak achieved in May 2018.
Near term, it looks probable Friday should relax (we've a caveat!) and for safety sake, allocating 7,384 as a trigger level makes sense.
The caveat is quite silly - on far too many occasions recently, when the FTSE illustrates a drop dead argument of direction, the market has toddled off in the opposite direction.
To play safe, we've opted for a fairly wide trigger level. Below 7,384 suggests weakness to an initial 7,373 points. If broken, secondary is at 7,330 points.
The UK market needs better 7,422 before we take any rise seriously as it should permit near term movement up to an initial useless 7,429 points. If bettered, secondary calculates at 7,439 points - marginally below the Big Picture trigger level of 7,440 points.
Have a good weekend.
Source: Trends and Targets Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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