ii view: DIY giant Home Depot takes axe to sales forecast
Exposed to the US housing market and with US interest rates tipped to fall later this year. We assess prospects.
13th August 2024 16:16
by Keith Bowman from interactive investor
Second-quarter results to 28 July
- Total revenue up 0.6% to $43.2 billion
- Like-for-like sales down 3.3%
- Adjusted earnings per share down 1.1% to $4.60 per share
- Dividend payment of $2.25 per share, unchanged from the previous quarter
Guidance:
- Now expects comparable full-year sales to fall by 3-4%, worse than the previous forecast for a 1% decline
Chief executive Ted Decker said:
“The underlying long-term fundamentals supporting home improvement demand are strong. During the quarter, higher interest rates and greater macro-economic uncertainty pressured consumer demand more broadly, resulting in weaker spend across home improvement projects.
“However, the team continued to navigate this unique environment while executing at a high level. I would like to thank our associates for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities.”
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ii round-up:
DIY retailing giant The Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) today reported sales and earnings which beat Wall Street forecasts, but lowered expectation for annual sales as customers continue to defer purchases while they wait for interest rate cuts.
Second-quarter sales of $43.18 billion just beat forecasts of $43 billion, although that left adjusted earnings down 1.1% year-over-year at $4.60 per share. Comparable, or same-store-sales for the full year are now expected to fall by between 3% and 4%, down from a prior estimate for a 1% retreat.
Shares in the Dow Jones company fell 2% in pre-market trading having come into these latest results little changed year-to-date. That’s below a 4% gain for the Dow Jones itself. Shares in UK DIY chain Kingfisher (LSE:KGF), which owns B&Q, are up around 13% in 2024.
Home Depot operates more than 2,300 stores across the US, Canada and Mexico. Total sales for the quarter rose 0.6% to $43.2 billion and include a $1.3 billion contribution from the recent acquisition of SRS Distribution.
Comparable, or same-store sales fell 3.3% for the quarter to late July, the seventh consecutive quarter of negative comparable sales. Sales just for the US on the same basis fell 3.6% from Q2 2023.
US existing home sales for June fell 5.4% from May to 3.89 million properties, the slowest sales pace since December.
The prior acquisition of SRS is expected to contribute approximately $6.4 billion in full-year sales. Home Depot expects to open around 12 new stores in 2024.
Third-quarter results are likely to be announced mid-November.
ii view:
Started in 1978, Home Depot today sells around 35,000 products instore and approximately one million items online. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, it employs around 475,000 people across its operations. The US remains by far its biggest market, generating close to 92% of overall sales during its last fiscal year to late January.
For investors, the tough consumer backdrop including elevated borrowing costs cannot be overlooked. Costs for businesses generally have increased, the weather's influence on sales should not be forgotten, while a forecast price/earnings (PE) ratio in line with the three-year average may suggest the shares are not obviously cheap.
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On the upside, hopes for interest rate cuts later this year persist. A diversity of product, geographical region and sales channels exist. The acquisition of SRS has added to sales, while a forecast dividend yield in the region of 2.6% is not to be overlooked.
In all, and while some caution is sensible, expected interest rate cuts and a consensus analyst fair value estimate above $380 per share continue to offer hope for long-term investors.
Positives:
- Strong brand name
- Dividend increased more than seven years in a row
Negatives:
- Uncertain economic outlook
- The weather can impact performance
The average rating of stock market analysts:
Cautious buy
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