Interactive Investor

ii view: TUI might shift stock market listing to Germany

Shares in this holiday company have been a poor performer this year, but is that about to change? We assess prospects.

6th December 2023 12:09

Keith Bowman from interactive investor

Full-year results to 30 September

  • Revenue up 25% to €20.67 billion
  • Adjusted profit up 139% to €977 million
  • Net debt down €1.3 billion to €2.1 billion

Guidance:

  • Expects adjusted profit for the year ahead to increase by at least 25%

ii round-up:

German headquartered holiday company TUI AG (LSE:TUI) today projected year ahead profit growth above current City forecasts, with management also considering moving its primary stock market listing to Frankfurt from London.

Adjusted profit for the financial year to September 2024 is expected to grow by at least 25%, with high European share ownership and buoyant trading volumes potentially saving costs given as the reason for possibly moving its stock quote to Germany. 

Shares in the FTSE 250 company rose by more than 8% in UK trading having come into this latest news down around a quarter year-to-date. That compares to a near 2% fall for the FTSE 250 index itself and a 10% retreat for online holiday company On The Beach Group (LSE:OTB)

TUI’s full-year results to late September 2023 broadly matched analyst forecasts, with its recovery from the pandemic pushing revenue up by a quarter year-over-year to €20.67 billion, and more than doubling adjusted profit to €977 million from last year’s €409 million.

TUI’s operations include more than 400 hotels, around 130 aircraft, 16 cruise ships and more than 1,000 travel agencies.

Improved cashflows and a €1.8 billion fund raising helped net debt fall by €1.3 billion from a year ago to €2.1 billion, with credit rating agencies S&P and Moody’s earlier in the year upgrading their ratings to B and B2. 

Winter bookings had maintained their positive momentum, growing 11% year-to-date, supported by increased prices. First-quarter results are scheduled for 12 February. 

ii view:

In 2007, German tour operator TUI AG merged with First Choice Holidays of the UK. Today, the German and UK stock market listed company, whose services covers the entire tourism value chain, provides holidays to around 180 worldwide destinations. Its hotel brands include Robinson and TUI Blue. Its airline fleet competes with the likes of easyJet (LSE:EZJ), Wizz Air Holdings (LSE:WIZZ) and even International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG). The group’s sustainability policy is committed to reducing emissions across its airline, cruise and hotel operations by 2030.

For investors, accompanying management comments flagged the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, especially in the Middle East. Cost pressures which includes elevated mortgage and rental payments, persist. The dividend payment remains suspended, while the many factors potentially hindering performance such as air traffic control strikes and the weather should not be forgotten. 

More favourably, consumer demand for travel following the pandemic looks to remain robust, and cost inflation such as for fuel have eased. A focus on debt reduction has improved its leverage ratios 2.8 times to 1.2 times, while TUI’s integrated business model looks to give it more control than say the relatively new easyJet Holidays business. 

On balance, and while some caution still appears sensible given the risk of a mild recession in 2024, trading momentum appears to be in the company’s favour. 

Positives: 

  • Diversified asset portfolio
  • A lower cost base following the pandemic

Negatives:

  • Tough economic and geopolitical backdrop
  • Dividend payment suspended

The average rating of stock market analysts:

Strong hold

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