Can Barclays shares extend 20-month rally?
This high street lender has more than doubled in value since early 2024, but progress has slowed in recent months. Independent analyst Alistair Strang discusses when the rally may resume.
6th October 2025 07:56
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Barclays (LSE:BARC) share price is fast approaching a point where it risks falling steeply onto the concrete; except it probably isn’t.
To be fair, Barclays share price needs to close a session below 305p before we’d dare feel it had fallen off a cliff. Instead, price movements are proving “fairly” positive, though tentative.
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From our perspective, Barclays needs to close above 385p to justify setting off a party popper and raising an eyebrow. During September, it closed above this trigger level just once, and now the share has celebrated October by slithering above 385p to again move into the “triggered” area.
If our suspicion proves correct – which visually it shall be – the next time Barclays closes solidly above 385p we should anticipate share price movement to an initial 401p and some very possible hesitation. It appears closure above 401p shall once again give a significant trigger level, allowing theoretical movement to an initial third level of 442p.
However, from a Big Picture perspective, there is a bigger deal rolling around in the mud as there’s a seriously strong chance where closure again above 385p (or 389p, the high closing price in September) should enter an amazing long-term cycle to a future 540p with our Big Picture secondary, if bettered, an astounding 700p.
For Barclays, the share price is right on the edge of allowing proper optimism, a truly strange opinion for the retail banking sector.
Obviously, things could go wrong as the share price is certainly flirting with the concept of recovery. Currently, it needs to wither below 373p to risk triggering reversals to an initial 359 with our secondary, if broken, at a bottom of 331p and a probable point of bounce by 331p.
This safely above our danger level of 305p, essentially confirms our suspicion of a period of messing around until such time market confidence allows the retail banks another boom.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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