FTSE for Friday: why the blue-chip index is not out of the woods yet
23rd July 2021 07:57
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
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Despite a recovery from Monday's slump, the FTSE 100 index must do more to restore confidence in the uptrend.
We heard the weight of international laughter, when last week's FTSE for Friday report fell apart as the index opted to wander all over the place. As suspected, the market indeed bounced from the 7,000 level once again, wandered about like a drunk football fan who’s lost his pals, then closed the session once again at the 7,000 level. Nothing about the day's trading inspired any confidence, the lacklustre performance paving the way for a truly foul “freedom day” as England allegedly returned to normality.
However, there are a few details worthy of mention.
The notorious uptrend since October last year remains valid. The market has broken this uptrend, requiring to close a session above 7,030 points to nonsense the trend break. At time of writing, the FTSE needs better than 7,062 points to regain the Red uptrend and give confidence for surprise growth. Until such an event, the Big Picture suggests the FTSE 100 is now loitering in a region where reversal to 6,675 looks possible and, if broken, ‘bottom’ calculates around 6,500 points.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance
As for the near term and the FTSE for this Friday, we dare not disregard the market open on Thursday as it proved fascinating. The FTSE experienced a downward spike at the open, often a reliable signal of good things ahead. Both France and Germany were better behaved, opting to head upward directly from the market open and we watched, with fading hope, for any sign the UK intended match Europe.
Obviously, it failed to happen, with the result that the FTSE experienced a pretty boring day, one which failed to exhibit any reasonable degree of upward strength. Worse, thanks to the market breaking its immediate uptrend, there’s a very real risk reversals shall prove traumatic.
Near term, below 6,955 threatens travel down to an initial 6,915 points. If broken, our secondary works out at 6,890 points. And, if triggered, the tightest stop is painfully wide at 7,003 points.
Our alternate scenario can be pretty straightforward, as above 7,003 calculates with the potential of 7,022 points. If bettered, our secondary is at 7,047 points.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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