Interactive Investor

eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 18 March 2024

interactive investor has teamed up with experts at eyeQ whose artificial intelligence and own smart machine generate actionable trading signals. Here, they name 10 UK shares and 10 overseas stocks trading out of sync with macro conditions.

18th March 2024 10:50

by Huw Roberts from eyeQ

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"Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." EyeQ

Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary

This new series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, singe stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10


Macro Relevance

Model Value

Fair Value Gap

Playtech (LSE:PTEC)




Games Workshop Group (LSE:GAW)




British Land Co (LSE:BLND)




PageGroup (LSE:PAGE)




Halma (LSE:HLMA)




Greggs (LSE:GRG)




Elementis (LSE:ELM)




IG Group Holdings (LSE:IGG)




Johnson Matthey (LSE:JMAT)




Hunting (LSE:HTG)




Source: eyeQ. Long Term tactical models. Data correct as at 18 March 2024.

Recruitment firm PageGroup (LSE:PAGE) is an interesting case study. It underlines the importance of looking at eyeQ model value. Remember our smart machine looks at any stock’s relationship with the big picture environment - how it trades with economic growth, relative to shifts in inflation, to what the pound is doing, or how commodity markets are trading. 

Page is currently 3.83% cheap to our model value, so that will alert investors to a potential buying opportunity. But it is important to look at eyeQ model value which is rolling over and is now 461.84p, that’s a new low for 2024.

That means macro conditions are getting worse for Page. In which case, yes it’s cheap - its discounted a degree of bad news. But you don’t want to buy any security where macro conditions are deteriorating. The stock is cheap but there’s no trading signal until macro conditions at least stabilise and ideally start improving.  

International Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term tactical models. Data correct as at 18 March 2024.

PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL) is one to keep an eye on. For a year-plus it's been all about company news. But now the stock is on the cusp of a new macro regime. Macro relevance - how confident we are in the model value - is 63%.

The stock is modestly (4.8%) rich, but the bigger standout is the nature of this new macro regime. It is hugely reliant on easy financial conditions - it needs ample liquidity, tight credit spreads and low bond yields.

The biggest and simplest takeaway for anyone investing in PayPal is watch the bond market. If money markets and bonds start moving the wrong way, PayPal will be vulnerable.

These third-party research articles are provided by eyeQ (Quant Insight). interactive investor does not make any representation as to the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information provided, nor do we accept any liability for any losses, costs, liabilities or expenses that may arise directly or indirectly from your use of, or reliance on, the information (except where we have acted negligently, fraudulently or in wilful default in relation to the production or distribution of the information).

The value of your investments may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest.

Equity research is provided for information purposes only. Neither eyeQ (Quant Insight) nor interactive investor have considered your personal circumstances, and the information provided should not be considered a personal recommendation. If you are in any doubt as to the action you should take, please consult an authorised financial adviser. 


We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.

Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.

Details of all recommendations issued by ii during the previous 12-month period can be found here.

ii adheres to a strict code of conduct.  Contributors may hold shares or have other interests in companies included in these portfolios, which could create a conflict of interests. Contributors intending to write about any financial instruments in which they have an interest are required to disclose such interest to ii and in the article itself. ii will at all times consider whether such interest impairs the objectivity of the recommendation.

In addition, individuals involved in the production of investment articles are subject to a personal account dealing restriction, which prevents them from placing a transaction in the specified instrument(s) for a period before and for five working days after such publication. This is to avoid personal interests conflicting with the interests of the recipients of those investment articles.

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