Must read: FTSE 100 above 9,000, Rio Tinto, B&M, retail sales, US banks

GLOBAL MARKETS

European markets are inching higher on hopes of a trade deal between the US and the EU. 

The FTSE 100 is trading modestly higher this morning after hitting all-time highs on Monday. It has broken above the psychological 9,000 level for the very first time. 

• Invest with ii: What is a Managed ISA? | Open a Managed ISA | Transfer an ISA

Experian (LSE:EXPN) is leading the charge on the blue-chip index after first-quarter revenue surpassed estimates. 

Rio Tinto Ordinary Shares (LSE:RIO) is also among the top gainers after promoting its current head of iron ore operations, Simon Trott to CEO. He will replace outgoing chief executive Jakob Stausholm who is departing after 4.5 years. 

Barratt Redrow (LSE:BTRW) has plunged to the bottom of the FTSE 100, shedding nearly 10% after a disappointing update, dragging rival housebuilders Persimmon (LSE:PSN) and Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (LSE:BKG) down with.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver her closely watched Mansion House speech tonight when she is anticipated to outline a series of financial reforms including measures to improve mortgage access. 

In Asia, China’s Q2 GDP came in at 5.2%, down from 5.4% in the previous quarter but ahead of forecasts for 5.1% thanks to supportive measures from Beijing and easing trade tensions with the US (at least for now). 

Meanwhile, in Japan, the 10-year government bond yield hit the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, amid growing nervousness ahead of its upper house elections on Sunday. 

In the United States, US index futures are pointing higher, with the Nasdaq leading the charge thanks to NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA). Its shares are currently up in Frankfurt as the AI giant is now able to resume chip sales in China. Since 2022, there have been US government restrictions on its most advanced chips because of fears around military applications. 

Elsewhere in the US, focus is on quarterly earnings from some of Wall Street’s top lenders like JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) as well as US inflation figures out later today.

B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL 

B&M European Value Retail SA (LSE:BME) reported Q1 like-for-like revenues up 1.3% while group revenues increased by 4.4%. However, sales came in light versus expectations. 

The company enjoyed a boost to its outdoor ranges thanks to drier weather and the timing of Easter which helped drive demand for its outdoor ranges with garden, toys and DIY performing well in the UK. However, sales growth still disappointed expectations and prices  came down in the quarter, putting pressure on gross margins. 

Consequently, shares have fallen sharply this morning, extending a weak share price performance year-to-date. The stock has seen more than a third wiped off its market cap in 2025 and half its value erased over the past year. 

It faced a series of price target cuts from the likes of JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley last month after the discount retailer warned about higher costs and reported disappointing full-year UK sales. Hopes for a first quarter rebound have been crushed this morning, with traders selling the stock as a result. 

B&M is operating in a challenging macroeconomic backdrop – it is facing higher costs following the National Insurance and minimum wage increases. Plus, ongoing cost of living pressures combined with domestic and international economic uncertainty means shoppers are less willing to spend.

UK BRC RETAIL SALES 

According to the British Retail Consortium, like-for-like retail sales grew by 2.7% year-on-year in June, a jump from May’s 0.6% reading and way ahead of forecasts for 0.2%. Food stores sales were up by 4.1% and non-food store sales increased by a more modest 2.2%. 

June’s sunshine and a busy month of sport provided a boost to retailers. However, food inflation remains elevated - food prices increased by 3.7% in the year to June, with prices rather than volumes responsible for the increased retail spend. 

The latest official UK inflation figures out tomorrow will provide further clues into how price changes are affecting the economy. 
After the disappointing GDP figures for May out last week, this morning’s BRC retail figures add to hopes that the UK economy could bounce back in June.

US BANKS EARNINGS

US second-quarter earnings season kicks off today with results from the financial sector. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC), Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) and BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) are due to report followed by The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) tomorrow. 

According to LSEG data, for the S&P 500 as a whole, earnings growth is expected to come in at 5.8% year-on-year, down sharply from 13.7% in the first quarter as tariff uncertainty takes its toll on corporate America. However, earnings forecasts have been downgraded since Trump’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’ in early April, suggesting there is the potential for companies to still beat these lowered expectations. Plus, after the US dollar suffered its worst half-year in more than 50 years, there is the potential for greenback weakness to provide a tailwind for earnings, offsetting some of the trade war negativity. 

• High stakes ahead of US banks’ earnings season
• Sign up to our free newsletter for investment ideas, latest news and award-winning analysis

On Wall Street, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup have enjoyed impressive resilience lately in terms of their share price performances, each rallying by more than 30% over the last year and around 20% year-to-date. 

In the second quarter, with the Federal Reserve holding off from loosening monetary policy so far in 2025, higher interest rates are expected to support the banks’ net interest margins. Plus, significant financial market volatility is likely to have boosted trading revenues, helping offset weakness in investment banking where there has been a painful lack of dealmaking amid the global economic uncertainty.