eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 5 May 2025
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to generate actionable trading signals. Here, they highlight 10 UK shares and 10 overseas stocks either cheap or expensive given current macro conditions.
6th May 2025 08:31
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).
A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.
All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.
Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
UK Top 10
| Company | Macro Relevance | Model Value | Fair Value Gap |
| Bunzl (LSE:BNZL) | 71% | 3003.70p | -26.21% |
| Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.) | 70% | 132.37p | -9.22% |
| Savills (LSE:SVS) | 67% | 1033.45p | -6.98% |
| Mondi (LSE:MNDI) | 65% | 1216.20p | -6.31% |
| Anglo American (LSE:AAL) | 78% | 2173.05p | -1.73% |
| Sainsbury (J) (LSE:SBRY) | 66% | 260.77p | 1.00% |
| ITV (LSE:ITV) | 67% | 78.48p | 1.90% |
| Informa (LSE:INF) | 71% | 747.91p | 2.16% |
| HSBC Holdings (LSE:HSBA) | 72% | 816.36p | 3.44% |
| Wetherspoon (J D) (LSE:JDW) | 65% | 609.00p | 10.37% |
Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 4 May.
JD Wetherspoon
Wetherspoon (J D) (LSE:JDW) is set to provide its latest trading update on Wednesday and investors will be closely monitoring the pub chain’s performance in light of growing cost pressures and recent sales trends.
On eyeQ, JDW model value bounced 27% in recent weeks due to better risk appetite and improved European economic performance. But the stock has rallied even more and now sits 10.37% rich to overall macro conditions. Moreover, model value is showing signs of stalling suggesting macro conditions are losing some of that recent upward momentum.
The smart machine has triggered a bearish signal on JDW.
International Top 10
| Company | Macro Relevance | Model Value | Fair Value Gap |
| Jefferies Financial Group Inc (NYSE:JEF) | 79% | $60.79 | -23.38% |
| Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) | 75% | $221.69 | -7.95% |
| DuPont de Nemours Inc (NYSE:DD) | 77% | $70.75 | -5.20% |
| Ferrari NV (MTA:RACE) | 68% | €415.25 | -1.33% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group AG (XETRA:MBG) | 68% | €53.90 | -1.12% |
| Meta Platforms Inc Class A (NASDAQ:META) | 73% | $591.17 | 0.98% |
| The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) | 80% | $91.16 | 1.44% |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) | 73% | $245.13 | 2.92% |
| SAP SE (XETRA:SAP) | 79% | €250.08 | 6.09% |
| Lyft Inc Class A (NASDAQ:LYFT) | 65% | $11.37 | 10.13% |
Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 4 May.
Jefferies
Jefferies Financial Group Inc (NYSE:JEF)’ Q1 performance was underwhelming, with bond trading weakening and stock market deals stalling due to uncertainty sparked by US trade policy and geopolitical turmoil.
On eyeQ, model confidence is back above our 65% threshold for a macro regime - macro factors such as credit conditions and risk sentiments are once again key drivers of the stock.
Model value has risen strongly of late. In round numbers, it's nearly doubled from around $30 to $60 in the last month.
The stock price has lagged this improvement, leaving Jefferies 23.38% under eyeQ model value. That's enough to trigger a bullish signal.
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Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
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