It’s that time again, when numerous analysts will write sagely about bitcoin, announcing it’s obviously going to hitherto unforeseen levels and has become the currency of choice worldwide.
Excitement over bitcoin should necessarily be tempered with a dose of reality, thanks to the price finally regaining the level at which it was at in April 2022. Investors at that level saw the value drop by two-thirds, eventually bottoming (hopefully) at the $15,000 level.
Of course, now it will be the case folk are suggesting “it needed to go down a lot, so it can go even higher”.
However, we shall be generous as bitcoin could easily have collapsed during the reversal cycle from 2020, especially as it spent an indecent amount of time trading in a zone which calculated with an eventual “ultimate bottom” down at the $1,200 dollar level. The fact it chose to bounce almost exactly half way to our ultimate drop target gives considerable hope, suggesting the market actually has some real confidence for the longer term.
As for why bitcoin and gold are currently surging, it’s difficult to pin down any single reason, as so much else feels like it’s living a life of uncertainty. Perhaps it shall be the case the hiatus with interest rates shall somehow be credited with confidence in crypto and gold.
The situation for bitcoin near-term is quite positive as we can calculate movement next above $45,000 should provoke a lift to an initial $47,422. Of greater interest is our longer-term secondary, calculating at a presumably distant $61,425.
That's slightly lower than the highs of 2021 but crucially taking the value into territory where a long-term calculation gives a future $77,100 as exerting influence, along with a new all-time high.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
Full performance can be found on the company or index summary page on the interactive investor website. Simply click on the company's or index name highlighted in the article.