FTSE 100 index: is trouble brewing for next week?
Our analyst looks at the FTSE's confusing movements as well as upside potential in Australia.
14th August 2020 09:37
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Our analyst looks at the FTSE's confusing movements as well as upside potential in Australia.
FTSE FRIDAY & Australia too (FTSE:UKX)
Varied excuses are possible for sleeping in for the European markets opening.
Staying up to watch Japan and Australia is a pretty good one, while binge watching a TV show called "For All Mankind" didn't cut it.
The premise of the show was fascinating, essentially a 'what if Russia made it to the Moon before the USA?' twist of history.
Okay, the Australian market was still on one of my computer screens but was ignored, due to the quality of this offering from AppleTV.
But this doesn't mean Australia isn't worth watching.
The ASX200 index has recovered from its Covid-19 low fairly forcefully, and presently looks very capable of movement next above 6,190, bringing some strength to an initial 6,548 points, but obviously not in a single session.
We've a pretty strong reason to suspect some hesitation should 6,548 be achieved, thanks to the longer-term secondary looking remarkably insane as it calculates at 7,881 points and a shiny new all-time high. There's a possibility of stutters at 7,046 points.
Currently, Australia needs to trade below 5,417 points to justify panic as things risk going wrong rather fast, should such a trigger be trashed.
Source: Trends and Targets Past performance is not a guide to future performance
FTSE Friday
This week has been a tad confusing.
Quite how the FTSE 100 could justify being up by more than 2% against a backdrop of the news, boasting we were in the greatest recession since an asteroid spoiled the party for dinosaurs?
Or perhaps they all caught a virus which was going around!
We're not entirely convinced at the strength of reversal for the FTSE on Thursday.
The index had grown by around 150 points on Wednesday yet only sunk by 100 points on Thursday.
This certainly did not imply an immediate loss of confidence for the future.
In the event the FTSE manages below 6,180 on Friday, reversal down to 6,128 looks possible and visually we'd hope for a rebound at such a level.
If broken, things get nasty as our secondary calculation works out at 6,060 points.
As mentioned above, we're underwhelmed by the strength of retreat of Thursday, tending to suspect another attempt at recovery is possible.
An early ray of sunshine shall be movement on the FTSE above 6,215 points as this calculates with the potential of an initial 6,249 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 6,266.
This certainly takes us into the realm of brewing trouble for next week as the UK market shall fail to exceed the high of Wednesday, ideally setting the index up for some reversals fairly soon.
Only if 6,266 is exceeded dare we express optimism and project longer-term growth 100 points higher.
Have a good weekend and enjoy the next Grand Prix.
Source: Trends and Targets Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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