Here's why this analyst fears the worst for Glencore shares
The blue-chip miner is painting a series of "lower lows". Our chartist looks at the warning signs.
3rd July 2019 09:21
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
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The blue-chip miner is painting a series of "lower lows". Our chartist looks at the warning signs.
Glencore (LSE:GLEN)
Our last public review of Glencore (LSE:GLEN) was back in February this year, when we provided criteria for a 10% share price rise. Despite relative chaos in the world of heavy metal, this ambition was successfully achieved and exceeded. What has happened since is melting our collective brain cell!
At present, the share is trading around the 279p level and unfortunately, despite beating our prior secondary target with a lunge to 340p, the price has broken the uptrend since the start of 2016 and in doing so, is painting a series of "lower lows".
From our perspective, the news is quite grim as trades below 248p (which we suspect shall happen) and looks capable of driving reversal down to an initial 228p.
Worse, if such a level breaks, our secondary is a theoretical "bottom" of 193p. We're forced to use the term "bottom" quite loosely, thanks to the visuals tending suggest 132p should be "bottom" for a real bounce.
To achieve such a low, we'd suspect either negative news flow or, more probably, negative market conditions, shall conspire to provoke 132p making an appearance.
At present, the share price needs to exceed 300p just to regain the prior trend.
In such an event, we calculate an initial price target of 312p with secondary, if bettered, a pretty comfortable looking 346p.
For now, we fear the worst, suspecting 132p shall prove irresistible.
Source: Trends and Targets Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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