How low could the Brent crude price go?

With the price of Brent crude oil increasingly shaky, our chartist takes a look at how low it might go.

Every time Scotland gets restless, demanding independence from Westminster control, the price of Brent starts to drop. With the (almost) certainty of another referendum next year, we ask how the price of crude is looking.

Unsurprisingly, the answer suggests pretty poorly for the longer term.

The immediate issue is at US$54.50 as we'd regard this as a trigger for some fairly firm reversals.

Below such a level allows weakness down to an initial $45 with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) at $39.

If triggered, Brent requires above blue, presently $63.50, to cancel the drop potentials anytime soon. But realistically we calculate the product needs above $67.51 dollars to utterly foul the reversal potentials.

We're being a little satirical with the causes for the drop - the plunge to $28 didn't take place until 15 months after the last Scottish referendum.

Unsurprisingly, the writing had been on the wall for a major drop at the very start of 2014, around the time the last independence referendum was announced.

On this occasion, we're calculating an ultimate bottom potential at $26, if everything goes horribly wrong for Brent.

In the event a miracle occurs, above $67.50 looks like it should trigger moves to an initial $70.50. If bettered, secondary is at $75 and a probable hesitation.

For now though, we rather suspect we shall see $39 drip into view.

Source: Trends and Targets      Past performance is not a guide to future performance

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang, or interactive investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.