Suspecting the market isn't taking Iran seriously, our analyst shares his forecasts for gold and bitcoin.
When we last reviewed bitcoin in November, we suggested the possibility of a bottom at $5,920.
Amazingly, the crypto is on the verge of utterly nonsensing the prospect as it tries to mimic gold as a "safe haven" for a nervous market.
Thus far, we're surprised at the lack of hysterics in wider markets, starting to suspect whether "the Iran thing" is being taken seriously.
Gold, for instance, despite popping up to say 'Hi' to $1,611 is starting to show alarming signs of reversal.
At time of writing, it's trading around $1,560, signalling the potential of a bottom around $1,527.
In fact, a true loss of fear against Middle East events could swiftly permit a meltdown to the $1,500 level.
Therefore, despite the usual informed pundits jumping on the bandwagon and pulling target levels from nowhere, promising bitcoin will doubtless head up to insane levels, we've pretty severe doubts.
Visually, the chart gives some immediate problems. There's a downtrend in blue which appears to be provoking immediate reversal.
In addition, there's the uptrend in red which also is presenting some sort of wall to fend off price rises.
Our computer claims, should bitcoin now trade beyond $8,470, we should anticipate travel up to an initial $8,952.
If exceeded, secondary calculates at $9,130. The close proximity of both target levels suggest some sort of hesitation should be expected, if they actually make an appearance.
The alternate, reversal, scenario starts to look more likely. Weakness now below $7,850 could swiftly drive the price downhill to an initial $7,550.
If broken, it should hopefully bottom by the $7,050 level.
No-one ever said bitcoin is easy!
Source: Trends and Targets Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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