Which way next for Barclays?
Independent analyst Alistair Strang shares his outlook for the blue-chip high street lender.
4th August 2025 09:44
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Barclays has survived a stonking acceleration from the low of 223p earlier this year and was looking strong in a race to our previous upper target at 395p.
Unfortunately, on the final lap, the highest the share price achieved was 376p and now it appears to be convincing itself of a need to exhibit some price reversals.
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Perhaps this will prove to be an August thing, a very real instance of the market placing shares in “march on the spot” mode while everyone takes a holiday.
While sounding ridiculous, there’s certainly a problem with what occurred with Barclays (LSE:BARC)’ share price at the start of August.
By closing below a “closing price” uptrend, there’s a real risk that a “lower low” mindset will insert itself in share price behaviour for the relatively near term, creating a situation where now below 352 risks triggering a downhill cycle to an initial 334p.
Our secondary, should such a level break, calculates down at 320p and an almost certain rebound. It is worthwhile noting that this share price needs to close below 330p to actually cause any real panic. Until such a point, we tend to regard any near-term movements as just that, movements.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
However, when we paint a closing price trend on the chart, Barclays had to close on 1 August above roughly 358.789p. It didn’t, it closed at 356.65p, slightly below the trend.
From our perspective, this was ringing a pretty big bell for trouble ahead. It’s fairly crucial, we admit, that this share price only needs to close above 359p to undo our previous gloomy predictions.
Share price closure above 359p now has the potential of triggering movement to 403p. In the event that such an ambition is exceeded, we can calculate a future 502p as now making a reasonable big-picture target level.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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