BP risks reversal after hitting targets
After proving that his charts were following the correct trend, independent analyst Alistair Strang talks through potential moves and triggers in the coming weeks and months.
23rd April 2026 07:51
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
BP (LSE:BP.) has finally achieved the targets we presented a month ago, managing to close above our 569p secondary target on several occasions. Perhaps more impressively, the share also tackled our third level target of 606p, exceeding that figure slightly before closing the day at a shoulder disconnecting 605.3p. This sort of “pat on the back” is always appreciated as it confirms we’ve been following the correct trend from which to base our calculations!
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Despite all this euphoria, there’s a bit of a worry becoming evident. The Blue downtrend on the chart below, a crayon mark which dates back to 2018, has been pierced three times during the last month. Obviously, this must be an effect of the war on shipping currently ongoing and a quite strange economic situation which has been created.
Usually, share prices head upward due to demand, sheer buying pressure creating inflationary circumstances. Now, a quite different situation exists as demand has remained fairly steady, though in a state of constant decline due to the attempted shift to electric power. But supply has faltered, oil refineries in Europe failing to be drip-fed the raw product needed to keep them ticking over.
The three dips below the Blue downtrend bother us, perhaps an early warning that the price of BP is about to react to the current shambolic market conditions. It’s an awkward situation and becoming harder to resolve quickly.
With the country now running in a mode opposite to Malthus’s supply & demand laws, things risk becoming a bit strange for BP’s share price. If the price of fuel is forced to increase further, the reason will be an attempt to maintain income levels. But in a normal market environment, price increases are an attempt to maximise income levels exponentially. This should place some interesting pressures on crude prices as we enter a strange new land.
Currently for BP's share price, below 531p shall be taken as a trigger capable of provoking reversal to an initial 500p with our secondary, if broken, at 459p and perhaps a bottom capable of provoking a bounce.
But if things turn sunny in the Strait of Hormuz, the share need only exceed 586p to tick the first box which should trigger a surprise cycle, one which has an initial calculation of 652p and our secondary, if beaten, at 721p.
Our suspicion is BP’s share price risks some reversals.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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