BP shares tipped to continue seven-month rally
The oil major has been heading high ever since the April tariff crash and is now back to February prices. One analyst thinks there’s more to come.
5th November 2025 15:48
by Graeme Evans from interactive investor
BP’s Murray Auchincloss speaks at a conference in the Middle East in 2023. Photo by RYAN LIM/AFP via Getty Images.
Refreshed price targets have backed further upside for BP (LSE:BP.) shares after confidence among City analysts was boosted by the oil giant’s second successive set of forecast-beating results.
Having traded at a three-year low of 330p in April, the shares were near to 453p on Tuesday after BP reported third-quarter earnings some 8% stronger than consensus expectations.
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Berenberg sees a further rise of 15% after lifting its price target from 490p to 525p, while DZ Bank is now at 510p compared with 465p previously.
UBS said the path to recovery is “clearly under way” although the bank has kept a Neutral recommendation alongside an improved price target of 450p.
It added: “BP is starting to put together a better track record of financial performance, having posted the second quarterly earnings beat in a row.”
The bank pointed out its caution on shares was due to the still high proportion of balance sheet liabilities and uncertainty over the amount of value creation coming from asset sales.
Net debt stood at $26.1 billion (£20 billion) at the end of the third quarter, but with its $20 billion divestment programme under way, BP continues to target a figure of $14-18 billion by the end of 2027.
Berenberg said: “We believe that falling net debt, combined with an improving outlook across upstream and stronger delivery in downstream, can drive relative outperformance.”
The bank increased its earnings per share estimates for this year and next by 6% and 3% respectively, driven by higher gas and refining assumptions.
It said BP’s operational delivery is steadily improving and that recent exploration results have been strong, particularly with a significant hydrocarbon discovery in Brazil.
Berenberg added that the $20 billion disposal programme is starting to deliver, with $5 billion now agreed and processes ongoing for some of the larger operations such as the Castrol lubricants unit and the Gelsenkirchen refinery.
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The upturn for BP shares follows February’s strategy reset, under which chief executive Murray Auchincloss pledged to grow upstream operations, take a more focused approach to the downstream and invest with discipline in the energy transition.
He said on Tuesday: “There is much more to do but we are moving at pace, and demonstrating that BP can and will do better for our investors.”
BP is due to pay an unchanged third-quarter dividend of 8.32 US cents per share on 19 December, with its share buyback programme of $750 million also staying the same.
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