Does NatWest's recovery have legs?
After slumping to their lowest in over two years at the beginning of the month, the rest of November has been very kind to shares in the high street lender. Independent analyst Alistair Strang gives his latest price forecast.
20th November 2023 07:41
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
When we previously reviewed NatWest Group (LSE:NWG)three weeks ago, there were a few howls of anguish at our proposed potential of reversal down to 111p. Has the last three weeks produced anything to mitigate such a scenario?
The immediate answer is no. But the share price really doesn’t need to try too hard to remove itself from the danger zone in which it finds itself.
- Invest with ii: Top UK Shares | How to Start Trading Stocks | Open a Trading Account
If we adhere closely to our rules, the share price needs to better Blue on the chart, currently around 227p, as this should indicate an attempt to escape its fate. Early warning for such a scenario should come if the price were simply to better 212p fairly soon, as this should trigger recovery to an initial 243p and visually some almost certain hesitation given prior behaviour this year.
Our secondary, if 243p is exceeded, works out at a longer-term, and seemingly unlikely 295p. Okay, perhaps we’re being a little cynical here as the share price achieved higher than that earlier this year, so perhaps our calculated target of 295p could even prove viable.
Our converse scenario currently allows below 195p to potentially trigger reversals to an initial 181p with secondary, if broken, at 167p and perhaps a bounce. But if “they” are serious about immolating investors, below 167p now calculates with an ultimate bottom of 122p.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
Full performance can be found on the company or index summary page on the interactive investor website. Simply click on the company's or index name highlighted in the article.