FTSE for Friday: looking for traps that trigger a reversal
After making a successful call seven months ago, independent analyst Alistair Strang has an issue with the FTSE 100 at current levels.
13th February 2026 07:41
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Since 11 July last year, the FTSE 100 has grown by 18.2% in a fairly unrelenting climb. The reason the 11 July is important turns out to be fairly simple. You could have opened a long position at 8,882 points with a stop loss of just 8,880 points and the stop loss would not have been bothered.
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Instead, the market grew to its recent 10,535 points and provided a nice little earner of 1,653 points. In fact, our 'FTSE for Friday' at the time mentioned this aspect of the markets, an extract of which is shown below. It leaves the big question, what exactly is 'long term' as this analysis was only provided seven months ago?
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
We’ve now a bit of an issue at the current level, due to the fact we cannot safely calculate anything above 10,890 points on the current cycle of index movements. This is quite a big deal, suggesting unless 'they' start gapping the FTSE up, it should produce some turbulence any time soon. Visually, it’s getting close to our theoretical maximum target and, therefore, we’re inclined to focus on potential points of interest which may become traps that trigger a reversal!
However, we cannot entirely ignore the detail that the index remains within an upward cycle, and this creates an immediate scenario where above 10,472 points calculates with the potential of a visit to 10,524 next with our secondary, if bettered, working out at 10,644 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 10,421 points.
Unfortunately, the index suffered a strange looking reversal of 60 points in the final 30 minutes of trade yesterday, this artificial feeling movement indicates a chance of movement below 10,391 points heading toward an initial 10,364 points with our secondary, if broken, working out at a probable bounce point of 10,308 points.
Have a good weekend.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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