FTSE for Friday: a solid argument favouring upward movement
To make sense of stock market behaviour, independent analyst Alistair Strang consults minute-by-minute movements as well as long-term trends. Here's what he thinks of the FTSE 100 right now.
30th January 2026 07:43
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
We’re at a peculiar time of year that we like from a chart perspective. One of the more comfortable ways of viewing price movements is in minute-by-minute mode, with such precise data generally available for almost three months. Don’t get us wrong, the most important indicator is almost always the closing price for a session but it’s handy to zoom in and view the minutiae of the last 80 days of price twitches, sometimes an intraday wobble giving a clear idea the market may have a cunning plan, just not one it intends enact on that particular day.
- Invest with ii:Open a Stocks & Shares ISA | Top ISA Funds | Transfer your ISA to ii
Thursday provided one such example of collywobbles, the FTSE 100 managing to wander up to 10,277 before data from the USA was used to create what we suspect was an artificial fall. The elegance with which the minute-by-minute chart cuddled the immediate Red uptrend for the final 30 minutes of the UK market made us wonder.
Logically, below 10,154 expected a drizzle down to a tame 10,145 points, a potential short-lived bounce, then further traffic down to a hopeful bottom at 10,102 points. In terms of points collected, it’s not the most spectacular of scenarios, but a stop can be placed around 10,173 points.
Unfortunately. the FTSE 100 also has a solid argument favouring upward pressure, thanks to the shambolic Covid-19 drop in March 2000. Allegedly, the Covid drop damage has not yet been undone, the FTSE needing to exceed 10,394 points before recovery becomes official and the UK market can be seen to be following actual growth.
But Wall Street undid the Covid damage in 2024 when it exceeded 40,000 points. The period since has seen the US index grow by over 20%. The Nasdaq undid the Covid damage in 2020, reaching 12,000 points and is now more than double the level. Similarly, the S&P500 unwound itself from Covid by the end of 2021, exceeding 4,500 points and now flirts with the 7,000 level.
What this means is we shall not be inclined to regard the FTSE reaching 10,394 as potentially hitting a reversal point. Quite the opposite, thanks to the behaviour of other international indices.
At this point in time, we shall regard movement above 10,228 as potentially triggering gains to an initial 10,323 points with our secondary, if beaten, at a longer term 10,419 points. This secondary ambition, by exceeding our “Covid undone” target level, shall suggest the FTSE intends to finally join respectable markets.
Maybe next week, on 5 February, the Bank of England might provide a catalyst for the FTSE 100 to make another upward surge.
Have a good weekend, hopefully drier and warmer than it looks like here in Argyll.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
Full performance can be found on the company or index summary page on the interactive investor website. Simply click on the company's or index name highlighted in the article.