Lloyds Bank shares: a short-term forecast and long-term outlook
After running his software for this popular high street bank, independent analyst Alistair Strang has uncovered a 'quite fascinating scenario'.
19th January 2026 07:54
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
As the writer is loaded with a particularly unpleasant cold, it was tempting to be exceedingly brief in our outlook for Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY). We could say now above 104p should bring gains to an initial 113p with our secondary, if bettered, at 122p. And we’ll be back in three weeks, without a stinking cold, hopefully able to write something more interesting. However, we like searching for straws to clutch.
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Blue on the chart delineates a downtrend since April 1998. If we extend this downtrend to the current period, it seems Lloyds' share price needs to dwindle below 40p to indicate the onset of big trouble.
Otherwise, a quite fascinating scenario exists and, if we pretend this Big Picture is important, apparently above 104p should – for the terminally patient – suggest a cycle has commenced to a future 200p with our very long-term secondary, if bettered, at 316p.
In fact, we can calculate quite a bit higher but dreams of Lloyds turning into an eight-quid share are probably best left on the shelf.
Our lower chart is probably more realistic, with its suggestion of above 104p triggering some real recovery within conventional timeframes, effectively proposing the potential of a future 122p provoking some hesitation in a rising cycle.
An inevitable alternate scenario suggests weakness below 91p risks promoting reversal to an initial 84p with our secondary, if broken, at 71p. Visually, there’s quite a strong suggestion any visit to the 84p level shall doubtless provoke a rebound.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Important: Trends and Targets charts only incorporate official share count consolidations, ignoring rights issues where investors have a choice as to whether to participate.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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