A lurch upwards for Barclays shares?
Independent analyst Alistair Strang considers the position of this FTSE 100 blue-chip as investors await the Bank of England’s interest rate decision.
15th September 2025 09:26
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
It still feels strange projecting a positive outlook at UK retail banks, but it’s hard to ignore that their share prices collectively started recovery from the point at which the Bank of England decided to reduce interest rates.
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We’ve often argued that it has been too little, too late, especially as the UK now suffers with an interest rate twice that of Europe. However, with a further cut expected this Thursday, it looks like the retail banks are prepping themselves for another lurch upwards, despite UK economic news on Friday showing zero growth.
There are a couple of important numbers that should prove relevant to Barclays (LSE:BARC). First, above 382p should next trigger movement to 389p and some potential hesitation. However, should such a target be exceeded, we anticipate 401p now making an appearance in the coming weeks.
We certainly anticipate some dramatics at the 401p level, especially as closure above such a point exposes the share price to a long-term attraction from a theoretical 506p. To be fair, we suspect the £4 level will become a barrier in the weeks ahead.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
If things intend to go wrong, this share price needs to close below red on the chart, currently 365p. This would be a bit dodgy, allowing weakness down to an initial 348 with our secondary, if broken, at 338p.
The proximity of these target levels tends to suggest an imminent excuse for a bounce of some sort, essentially part of an effort to slow down the share price rise.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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