New poll: Here's where you think the FTSE 100 will end 2019

The latest poll from interactive investor has generated some interesting results, perfectly illustrating the battle between bears and bulls. Jemma Jackson has the numbers.

After a tumultuous year to date for equities, and political turbulence to match, it seems that many private investors are relatively optimistic about the prospects for markets next year.

Some 699 investors responded to the interactive investor website poll between 3pm on 12 December and 9am on 17 December 2018. Some 30% are expecting the FTSE 100 to close next year between 7,000-7,500 – not necessarily shoot the lights out expectations, but it suggests investors are hanging on in there and seeing potential for some steady growth. 

A more bullish 13% are predicting the FTSE 100 to climb between 7,500-8,000, whilst 8% expect the FTSE 100 to break 8,000, which would be a first in history.

Over a third (34%) are somewhere in the middle, expecting the FTSE 100 to close next year between 6,500-7,000.

That's not to say there aren't some bears out there – 8% of investors think the FTSE 100 is looking to close next year between 6,000-6,500, and 7% are expecting it to sink below 6,000.

Richard Hunter, Head of Markets, interactive investor, says: 

"The Dalai Lama suggests that we should 'choose to be optimistic – it feels better' and after a rollercoaster ride for both markets and politics this year, many investors are clearly opting to take a leaf out of that book. 

"Certainly, the FTSE 100 offers a degree of comfort at the moment. With an average dividend yield of around 4.4%, investors are being paid to be patient, and there are some world class companies, some of whom are largely immune from Brexit uncertainties."

Moira O’Neill, Head of Personal Finance, interactive investor says: 

"Given the volatile year we have experienced, many investors seem relatively sanguine about the prospects for next year. Even so, after a year that has been difficult to navigate for even the most seasoned investment manager, it may well be time to look to out and out active managers who are proactively seeking to beat the market as we move into 2019. 

"LF Lindsell Train UK Equity, managed by Nick Train, is a good example, in our view, seeking out 'exceptional' companies with strong brands and sustainable business models."

Beyond the UK

Many investors are also shrugging off trade war fears and potential interest rate hikes in the US, with America the most favoured region amongst 27% of investors, followed by the UK and China (both 26%) South America (11%) and Europe (10%).