Orange shares are on a run at the moment, but will this rally succeed where others have failed? Independent analyst Alistair Strang checks the numbers.
Our weekly wander through an apparently ‘riot torn’ Europe (a vaccination thing) revealed a little surprise. French multinational corporation, Orange SA (EURONEXT:ORA) (previously France Telecom) enjoys a share price which is starting to look quite useful.
Immediately opting to glance at Vodafone Group (LSE:VOD) in the hope it’s about to experience similar behaviour, proved a wasted exercise. Vodafone remains languishing with the wrong numbers and we suspect it shall not “bottom” until it discovers 100p again.
Orange, on the other hand, by minimal amounts, is now looking fairly useful, the share proving one of the most active stocks on Tuesday 23 November. Even visually it appears something positive may be happening, hopefully an end to the lethargic behaviour since the Covid-19 drop last year.
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What really surprises us is the extent of recovery possible on the immediate cycle, ideally capable of eventually returning the share price to its previous hiatus between €14 and €15 since 2015.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Presently trading around €9.93, the price need only exceed €9.96 to calculate with the potential of movement to €10.50. Visually, there’s an implication of some coming hesitation around such a level, due to behaviour during this year.
However, with closure above €10.50, we can present a secondary ambition at €11.83 and this is a point where the share price absolutely must close above the secondary target. Doing so shall ideally send a strong signal the market wants Orange share price to return to its hiatus level, as we can calculate a long-term target at €14.67 eventually.
If everything decided to go wrong for Orange, below €9.56 looks very troubling, allowing reversal to an initial €9.28 with secondary, if broken, at a hopeful bottom of €8.91. For now, we lean toward optimism for the share price future.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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