What are Glencore shares really worth?
With the mining giant in talks with Rio Tinto about an industry megamerger, independent analyst Alistair Strang reveals what his charts say the shares could be worth.
13th January 2026 07:45
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Once upon a time, there was a company called Xstrata. We liked them, their share price movements making a lot of sense from our perspective, and one day they were gobbled up by Glencore (LSE:GLEN). The emergent company had a share price which made little sense, movements only starting to fit our logic once they ditched the link with Xstrata in their name. Now, with Glencore and Rio Tinto Ordinary Shares (LSE:RIO) talking about a megamerger, things allegedly should be confident for Glencore’s share price.
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Unfortunately, in what seems the majority of cases where a merger takes place in the public eye, it’s unusual for share prices to do what used to happen in the old days (i.e. run amok)
From the perspective of signs which generally presage positive share price movements, since October last year, Glencore has luxuriated in them. Firstly, we saw the price exceed 358p in October, exceeding the level of trend break in February 2025 and giving what’s generally a pretty solid suggestion happy days were coming.
Secondly, at the end of December last year, the share price rejoined the Red uptrend since 2020 in something we generally regard as a copper bottomed reason to anticipate growth. And finally, at the start of this year, the share price exploded above the Blue downtrend since 2023, completing a triumvirate of signals which, believe it or not, collectively pointed to a Big Picture potential lurking at a distant 765p ambition for the share price.
Is it going to happen?
We think not, simply do a suspicion shareholders will be excluded from any abnormal financial benefits due to a merger.
We shall certainly know soon enough as any one of the three positive signals we highlight should create a situation, where movements above 470p should now promote price nods in the direction of an initial 510p with our secondary, if bettered, at 571p and the visual prospect of some market hesitation.
Should things intend to go wrong for Glencore, below 400p will certainly tick a fairly major box, pointing at the risk of reversal to an initial 360p with our secondary, if broken, a bottom at 279p.
For now, the best we fear will be an attempt shy of the 571p level. Only closure above such a point will justify a little bit of drool, when dreaming of our future calculation at 765p.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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