Which way will NatWest shares go next?
15th May 2023 07:20
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
A visit to the 300p level earlier this year was brief, so independent analyst Alistair Strang has run his software to see if a return to the big number is on the cards.
Few market movements are more dismaying than when a share price is gapped (aka manipulated) before a trend line. In the case of NatWest Group (LSE:NWG), on 28 April, the decision was made to force the share price downward quite forcibly, effectively broadcasting the markets intention for enforce misery of holders of NatWest. The Blue downtrend since 2015 clearly means something to the nice folk who control the markets.
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The situation now for NatWest indicates movement continuing below 250p will probably make an attempt next to an initial 238p, with our longer term secondary, if broken, calculating down at 215p and a hopefully proper bottom bounce.
There is obviously an issue with the banking sector due to US banks popping like the ulcers of middle management, and it leaves us with a broad expectation things may get worse, despite central banks hiking interest rates.
There’s now a big problem should our 215p target level eventually break as “bottom” works out at 134p, a number which doesn’t look visually impossible. But it is certainly painful, representing an effective return to a true 13p level, once the historic 2012 10:1 share split is remembered.
However, given the movement in April highlighted the market places some importance against this long term Blue downtrend, we shall be fascinated if the market opts to invent an excuse to gap NatWest share price above Blue anytime in the next few weeks.
Such a movement would be regarded as influential, as should NatWest manage to now close a session above 270p, it looks like share price recovery to an initial 298p should make some sense. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 318p and some potential hesitation, despite such an ambition representing a higher high.
While we can introduce a long-term third level ambition at 396p, in this scenario, we shall prefer revisit the numbers if the 318p level makes an appearance.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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