Why I'm not optimistic about immediate future for Lloyds Bank shares
After discussing last week's FTSE 100 forecast, independent analyst Alistair Strang gives an update on the high street bank.
2nd March 2026 07:49
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
It appears clear the markets are determined to use the newest conflict to power a confusion of activity. Gold and oil prices shall probably head upward while more fragile equities head down. If our guess about the artificial nature of reports proves correct, it will doubtless prove a viable opportunity to invest in “cheap” shares, when the media attention once again returns to internal US turmoil.
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The crazy thing about current movements came from our headline comment below against the FTSE last Friday:
"We’ve been continuously reworking our FTSE 100 numbers and can now speculate an absolute maximum of 10,899 points as a target for the UK market. We cannot presently calculate anything above such a level, unless it starts “gapping” the index upward at the market open."
With the FTSE 100 reaching a level above which we couldn’t comfortably calculate, we cannot express any surprise at the sudden turbulence from the Middle East, as it very conveniently matches the need of the FTSE to bounce around for a while, designating some sort of new trend.
This sort of banana-shaped logic happens far too often for us to ignore and we really don’t understand why. On the US markets, when a ceiling approaches, it’s often the case the market discovers an excuse to “gap” the index up above a level we’ve perceived as problematic. With the UK market, some sort of artificial tantrum tends be the norm.
As for Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY), when we reviewed them three weeks ago, we speculated on the risk present if the share price managed to stumble below 105.7p. This has occurred, the share price reaching our initial target of 99p before enacting one of the weakest bounces possible. Additionally, the drop stumbled below our 99p target, appearing to “bottom” at 98.2p, yet only giving a 5p bounce.
We’re not optimistic about the immediate future, suspecting near-term weakness below 101p shall now make an attempt at 96p with our secondary, if broken, at a bottom of 90p. Or perhaps even 84p, if the market gets serious about reversals!
Our alternate scenario allows for above 107p to trigger recovery to an initial 110p with our secondary, if beaten, a more interesting 125p.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Important: Trends and Targets charts only incorporate official share count consolidations, ignoring rights issues where investors have a choice as to whether to participate.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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