Aviva shares: an optimistic view
16th August 2022 08:22
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
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There's something quite remarkable going on with the FTSE 100 insurer, reckons independent analyst Alistair Strang. Find out what it is here.
It’s possible that something quite remarkable has happened, Aviva (LSE:AV.)’s share price finally closing above the downtrend, which dates back to 2007. Visually, we expect it will prove quite a big deal, creating a ‘big picture’ situation where ongoing traffic above 474p should create a situation with longer-term movement to an initial 538p looking like a confident proposition.
In the more distant future, we can even calculate a distant 644p as an extremely viable ambition. About the only fly in the ointment is the value of a potential stop loss, if anyone intends to take a ‘fire and forget’ stance.
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The visuals indicate that the price need only fall below 450p to scupper our calculations, an agreeably tight stop loss level given the potential gains and, thus, one we are inclined to distrust. It’s entirely possible that the red line on the chart below may represent a saner ‘stop’ level, this presently at 397p.
Below red certainly should ring alarm bells, calculating with the risk of reversals to an initial 340p with secondary, if broken, at 295p. But for now, our thoughts lean towards a happier future for Aviva.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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