Brent crude continues to make a nuisance of itself

by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets |

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But the price should continue climbing, our columnist believes.

Brent crude

Usually, we like to present our trading scenario with trigger levels and targets. Unfortunately, Brent crude is making a nuisance of itself, thanks to price behaviour during the last month.

Despite the majority of traders not actually trading Brent in the commodities markets, it's a pretty key indicator. The price of Brent will always effect the price of major oilers. And of course, if major oilers go up, so does the FTSE 100, thanks mostly to BP (LSE:BP.) and Royal Dutch Shell (LSE:RDSB).

February saw Brent climb from $55 (£39.5) through to our previous ‘market high’ target of $65. The climb was pretty remorseless, taking the product above and below our target level from December last year.

As per our usual custom, we'd not given a third target level but there's little doubt, despite the potential of some near-term reversals, that Brent crude should continue its climb.

The product needs to reverse below $48 to cancel our current optimistic scenario.

Our next target level for Brent looks like $68.5 with secondary, when exceeded, at $74.5. We fully expect the secondary target of $74.5 to experience some stutters, if only due to a prior high in 2019.

Unusually, we can give a third target level at $95, visually a massive jump and one we suspect unlikely on the current cycle.

If searching for near-term indications of weakness, below $63 looks pretty certain to drip down to $61.70. If broken, continual reversal to a bottom, hopefully, of $57 is expected.

Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.

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