eyeQ: the cheapest Mag7 stock is now a buy
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Now, a famous tech company just triggered a bullish signal.
11th December 2025 09:30
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Apple
Macro Relevance: 80%
Model Value: $305.48
Fair Value Gap: -9.6% discount to model value
Data correct as at 11 December 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
During the heady days of the AI revolution Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) was seen as the weakest link among the US Magnificent 7 tech stocks. The criticism was, unlike its peers, it had no AI strategy and was getting left behind.
Today, however, that weakness is potentially becoming a strength. The AI story is becoming more discerning - who can fund capital expenditure out of free cash flow versus who has to rely on external financing? Have we moved on to the next phase where the winners are the adaptors of this new technology rather than the builders of it?
Those are questions for equity analysts to answer. What's interesting is there's a strong macro narrative to Apple right now.
Macro is important - an 80% macro relevance score means big picture stuff like economic growth and the Federal Reserve are critical.
Macro conditions are trending higher. eyeQ model value has risen almost 17% in the last month alone. Why? Two main reasons.
Apple’s biggest driver is a desire for lower inflation expectations, and the market has delivered exactly that with five-year inflation swaps falling around 0.3% over the last three months.
The second biggest driver is Fed rate expectations where Apple wants a steeper dollar money market strip. Right now, that implies Apple is comfortable with the idea of less rate cuts after we get down to around 3% in the middle of next year.
At first that might sound odd but what the maths is picking up on is effectively "Goldilocks", i.e. we get enough rate cuts to keep money easy, but not so many cuts it means the Fed is scrambling to avoid the US falling into recession.
And the critical point is Apple is lagging this improvement in the broad macro environment. Indeed, it now screens as 9.6% cheap to our $305.48 macro-warranted fair value. That makes it the cheapest of the Magnificent 7 stocks on our metrics and is enough to trigger a bullish signal.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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