eyeQ: a powerful combination at Persimmon
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Here’s what it says about this FTSE 100 housebuilder.
10th March 2026 11:12
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Persimmon
Macro Relevance: 65%
Model Value: 1,344.31p
Fair Value Gap: -9.47% discount to model value
Data correct as at 10 March 2026. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Persimmon (LSE:PSN) is up this morning, buoyed by decent 2025 results and constructive outlook for the year ahead.
But, while the news from company fundamentals is positive, investors might stop to wonder what the macro perspective is. The spike in oil prices has prompted a re-pricing of expectations around Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. The market has moved from expecting a couple of reductions this year, to concerns that sticky inflation stay the Bank’s hand. Mortgage rates have already started to creep up and that could be a drag on housing activity going forward. And that narrative is probably behind the -20% correction over the last few weeks.
On eyeQ, our model explains 65% of shifts in the PSN price. Macro momentum is choppy but essentially flat. It was especially noisy last spring around US President Donald Trump’s tariff shock - macro back then was noisier than the stock price itself. That was a huge shock.
Today, even with events in Iran and the impact on energy prices, the macro model is more stable. The current moves reflect a tug-of-war between different macro factors. This recent risk-off vibe has hurt; spikes in equity volatility and wider credit spreads have been a headwind. But the stronger pound, stronger economic growth and robust commodity markets have been tailwinds.
Net-net, macro conditions are moving sideways and currently have macro fair value at 1,344.31p. So, our model suggests the recent sell-off wasn’t justified by the macro environment.
The fair value gap fell just shy of an official buy signal, but it got very close. Now this morning we’re rallying after those earnings. So, no signal but one of those occasions where macro and micro, top down and bottom-up stories are aligned. That’s a powerful combination.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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