eyeQ: why GSK shares could be vulnerable
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Here, it analyses reaction to some big news.
30th September 2025 11:07
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
GSK headquarters in Madrid Technology Park, Spain. Photo: Cristina Arias/Cover/Getty Images.
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
GSK
Macro Relevance: 65%
Model Value: 1.398.53p
Fair Value Gap: +8.53% premium to model value
Data correct as at 30 September 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Several brokers have upgraded GSK (LSE:GSK) to a buy, pushing the stock to highs not seen since June.
The two catalysts are confirmation that Luke Miels will succeed Emma Walmsley as CEO. The former has been GSK’s chief commercial officer since 2017, so is regarded as a well-prepared insider.
Second, GSK recently announced a plan to invest $30 billion (£22.3 billion) in the US over the next five years, including a $1.2 billion new facility in Pennsylvania. That - it is hoped - would allow them to escape US President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs on international pharmaceutical companies without a US presence.
C-suite changes and negotiating Trump’s tariffs are important developments. But so too are macro considerations with GSK back in a macro regime for the first time since April.
Unfortunately, the macro picture is quite different. eyeQ model value has been flatlining around 1,400p for two months now. That means the recent rally has taken the stock 8.5% rich to macro conditions.
Even if you like the stock for company fundamental reasons, you need to be aware that a lot of good macro news is in the price now. You need to be especially convinced that there’s still more of a tailwind to come from bottom-up news because the top-down side of things suggests the stock is vulnerable.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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