FTSE for Friday: analysing the defence sector
Independent analyst Alistair Strang gives a view on one of the hottest sectors right now as well as his usual look at the FTSE 100.
13th March 2026 07:58
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
The first nine sessions of March have seen the FTSE 100 beset by conflict confusion, often leaving us less than confident we’d a clear idea of what’s coming. Our collated movement formula tends to depend on the market employing logic to take calculated movements, this often giving the (possibly true) impression the markets are under human control to a greater degree than most folk would find believable.
Unfortunately for them, we’ve a track record of providing exact – or extremely close – predictions. An easy example would be the S&P 500 where we’d given an initial drop target of 6,671 points. It bottomed out at 6670.40 points.
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Obviously, this was just one index but, collectively, we’d five “initial targets met” among our bunch of indices we match daily. The markets started to give a feeling that things are getting back under control again, maybe an indication there’s an expectation of hostilities ending soon, maybe an indication the markets are settling down for an extended period of relatively low level conflict. Obviously, this may just be wishful thinking.
Of course, it’s always worth a glance at NMX502010, the index code for ‘Aerospace & Defence’, a market which is quietly bubbling away in the background. Currently at 23,623 points, this index needs above 24,558 points to provoke some near-term concern. This trigger level is a bit of a problem due to the possibility of movement above 24,188 bringing an initial 24,392 points with our secondary, if bettered, at a conflict triggering 25,592 points.
To solidify the dangers of peace, this index would need to sink below 21,370 points to imply reversal to an initial 20,253 with our secondary, if broken, at 18,763 points.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
As for the FTSE 100, in its own way the index has been mirroring the current hesitation from the above chart, only presenting a more likely potential of drops. If things get serious, below 10,258 risks triggering reversal down to an initial 10,106 points with our secondary, if broken, at a scary 9,831 points. If triggered, our tightest stop looks like 10,290 points, effectively sufficiently tight to make us distrust the drop potentials.
Our alternate, positive scenario demands the UK index move above 10,235 to probably signal the potential of gains to an initial 10,541 points with our secondary, if bettered, at 10,883 points.
Have a good weekend.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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