NatWest shares and a key trendline
Share price behaviour last week demonstrated the importance of a particular trend, which independent analyst Alistair Strang explains here.
30th March 2026 07:48
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
NatWest Group (LSE:NWG)'s share price has recently provided the first hint it may flush itself away. The red uptrend since 2023 was broken last Monday, but exquisite care was also taken to ensure the share price didn't close below the red line. As the chart inset highlights, the market confirmed our usual paranoia about closing prices is justified.
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It’s certainly now the case where share price closure below 519p should broadcast a strong signal telling traders “NatWest is not cheap!”. Instead, our expectation shall be of grim times ahead as the price risks being flushed away.
In fact, even trades below 517p carry the threat of triggering reversal to an initial 465p with our secondary, if broken, at 447p. Unfortunately, this isn’t the end of the nightmare as we can calculate movement below 447p threatening an eventual bottom, hopefully, at 386p.
However, we’re inclined to take hope the movement on 23 March was simply a warning of what could happen, rather than a promise of what’s ahead. But there’s no doubt this red uptrend is important to the markets.
Should this prove correct, above 546p is supposed to sprinkle fairy dust on the share price, triggering gains to an initial 582p with our longer-term secondary, if exceeded, working out at 658p and some visual hesitation. We’ve a degree of hesitant optimism here due to the care the market has taken to avoid breaking the trend.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Important: Trends and Targets charts only incorporate official share count consolidations, ignoring rights issues where investors have a choice as to whether to participate.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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