Time to be positive about Barclays and the Nasdaq index?
27th June 2022 08:16
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
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The media is full of doom and gloom about market crashes and recessions, but independent analyst Alistair Strang has some good news for a change.
On Friday, we piled on the doom & gloom but gave a crucial caveat; “Perhaps the Nasdaq is an early indicator the wildly mooted stock market recession is perhaps not currently scheduled.” It’s interesting to note the Nasdaq has also now produced a pretty classical Lady Gaga moment!
With shares, when a price is Gapped Down below a trend, shortly thereafter the price finding itself Gapped Up above the trend (hence, GaGa), it generally provides a pretty safe and solid indication some strong movement should be anticipated.
In the case of the Nasdaq, if we let out all the string in the metaphorical kite, the two circled areas on the chart below allegedly are now suggesting this index intends to commence recovery to 14,400 points.
Given the media is full of warnings for a coming market crash and recession, we’re now officially puzzled, but we cannot ignore Friday producing a 3.5% gain on the Nasdaq! Couple this with the market exhibiting a very deliberate movement to correct a forced drop, things may become quite positive.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Barclays
We’re inclined to apply similar recovery logic from the Nasdaq to wider markets, especially as we expressed curiosity relating to last week's movements, and this suspicion proved correct with Friday's surprise movements.
Obviously, Russia etc is still going on, the pandemic still inflicts a headache, and supply chain chaos is an ongoing issue. But far too many positive movements occurred last week, many of which cancelled our Big Picture drop logic.
With Barclays (LSE:BARC) trading at 159p at time of writing, the share price currently need only exceed 162p to suggest the potential of “surprise” movements to an initial 172p with secondary, if bettered, at 186p.
Should we opt to apply the Nasdaq model as delineated above, the price could simply keep trundling upward to 203p as a major point of interest.
If things intend go pear shaped for Barclays, the price needs below 146p to risk triggering reversals to an initial 133p with secondary, if broken, a hopeful “bottom” at 114p.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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