Aviva shares and some thoughts on Ethereum
8th December 2021 07:45
Shares in the UK insurance giant have been moving sideways for months, but could lead a charge higher, believes this independent technical analyst.
With the UK market making a “surprise” recovery from the supposed panic of Omicron, we’re curious as to whether some of the major components of the FTSE 100 shall finally exhibit proper recovery strength.
Our key issue remains a demand that the FTSE exceed 7,550 points, but shares such as Aviva (LSE:AV.), already playing tag with its pre-pandemic high, may prove among the first to surge firmly.
Visually, there’s little doubt some sort of glass ceiling exists at the 420p level and, with the share presently trading around the 400p mark, it certainly doesn’t require much movement to kick things into life. From an immediate standpoint, above 404p apparently has an initial target of 421p. Once again, this challenges the 420p glass ceiling which has been creating a nuisance since April this year.
With closure above our 421p target level, this has the potential to become interesting as our secondary target level calculates at 449p, maybe even a game changing movement for the longer term.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance
The issue with our 449p ambition dates back to 2018 as, for some reason, the market decided to anoint the 440p level with glass ceiling status. It’s creating a strange scenario, where essentially the share price requires two different 20p gains before everyone can risk buying a party popper. Only once both the 420 and the 440 glass ceilings shatter dare we express confidence a longer term track toward a distant 671p has commenced.
If Aviva intends to spoil our calculations, the share price needs close a session below 347p.
Ethereum
Recently, Bitcoin has been all over the place but, for some reason, Ethereum has behaved with relative sanity. The immediate scenario hints the price should become especially interesting, should it exceed $4,490. This should prove capable of triggering price growth to $4,886 next.
By a tiny amount, this creates a new all-time high for the crypto and permits us to calculate a longer term (or the next day!) potential of $5,937.
If things intend to go Bitcoin-shaped, Ethereum needs to trade below $3,900, as this calculates with a reversal potential to $3,549 with secondary, if broken, down at $3,102 and hopefully a bottom.
All this optimism against Ethereum has an issue with our gloomy attitude to Bitcoin. We shall not be aghast if Bitcoin eventually makes its way down to a bottom of $38,000!
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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