eyeQ: bullish signal on this UK share
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Here’s what it makes of this FTSE 100 stock.
6th August 2025 09:32
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Taylor Wimpey
Macro Relevance: 71%
Model Value: 111.76p
Fair Value Gap: -9.83% discount to model value
Data correct as at 6 August 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Monday’s top 10 trading signals article revealed three real estate investment trusts (REITs) among the cheapest UK stocks on eyeQ’s metrics. The clear message was that, from a macro perspective, value is starting to emerge in UK property.
Today, we have a new bullish signal on the home-building giant Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.), which now sits almost 10% cheap to macro fair value of 112.14p.
There is an immediate health warning. Taylor Wimpey is one of those stocks where eyeQ model value has become a lot more volatile in 2025. Around Trump’s tariff announcements in April, eyeQ model value was whipped around more aggressively than the actual share price.
That’s evident in the fair value gap chart below. The extreme rich and cheap levels in March and April occurred because of sharp swings in eyeQ model value. Taylor Wimpey’s share price remained relatively stable.
That said, this latest fair value gap has developed because the opposite has been true - the share price has legged lower, but macro conditions remain stable. Looking at that fair value gap chart, this is very much the cheap end of recent ranges outside those two outlier events a few months ago around the Trump tariff shock.
It’s another example suggesting that the UK property sector has, to a fair degree, become overly pessimistic.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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