eyeQ: have easyJet shares finally bottomed?
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. It says a lot of bad news is already in the airline’s price.
21st May 2026 10:10
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
An easyJet plane at Gatwick airport . Photo: Andrew Aitchison/In pictures via Getty Images.
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
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easyJet
Macro Relevance: 74%
Model Value: 354.62p
Fair Value Gap: -0.17% discount to model value
Data correct as at 21 May 2026. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to set out a package of measures to help consumers weather the cost-of-living crisis. Energy costs, food prices, potentially higher mortgage rates. There’s a growing list of threats for UK spending patterns.
For airlines such as easyJet, cautious consumers tend to delay booking their trips until closer to departure. That was evident in the easyJet half-year report just released where the company stated that flights for the second half of 2026 are only 58% sold. This trend of booking later and later is having a clear impact on sales and creates a highly uncertain environment.
The market reacted by pushing the share price 3% lower. Remember, the stock is already down over 30% in 2026 thanks to the conflict in Iran and last month’s profit warning.
At first glance, the macro picture is pretty dull. The stock is trading bang in line with macro conditions. No fair value gap means no immediate opportunity for either the bulls or the bears.
But two observations are worth making. For the first time in a long time, macro matters. A 74% macro relevance figure means big-picture stuff is having a clear impact on the stock.
Second, the de-rating of the stock around Iran was brutal. The spike in oil prices, inflation and impact on credit conditions meant eyeQ model value fell 31% in March alone.
But what’s interesting now is that macro momentum appears to have stabilised at the lows. Model, value has been moving sideways around the 350p level for nearly eight weeks now.
Together, the picture is one that suggests a lot of the bad news is in the price. We don’t yet have a bullish catalyst - from macro or the company - but sometimes knowing we’ve bottomed is valuable information in itself.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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