ii view: optimistic Informa maintains momentum

10-month trading update to 31 October

• Underlying revenues up 6.6%

Guidance:

• Continues to expect full-year underlying revenue growth of 6% or over
• Continues to expect full-year adjusted earnings per share growth of 10% or more

Chief executive Stephen Carter said:

“Informa continues its strong operating performance, delivering further revenue, profit and earnings growth this year and with continuing momentum into next year.

“Our growth platform is built around the power and rising value of Live Events, and is underpinned by unique specialist B2B Brands, leading positions in growth geographies and categories, proprietary First Party Data and world class talent.”

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ii round-up:

Informa (LSE:INF) today reaffirmed expected annual sales and profit growth hopes, supported by ongoing momentum at its Live Events business and focused on growth across India, the Middle East and Africa (IMEA). 

An acceleration in live events adjusted revenue growth to 8.7% for the 10-month period to late October, up from 8.5% in the first six months, supports expected annual growth of 6% or more. Management continues to forecast growth in adjusted earnings per share of at least 10%. 

Shares in the FTSE 100 company rose 2% in UK trading to record levels, having come into this latest news up by just over a fifth so far in 2025. That’s similar to the FTSE 100 index year-to-date. Fellow exhibitions provider RELX (LSE:REL) are down 7% over that time.

Informa looks to help businesses connect and make better informed decisions. 

Underlying sales at its Taylor & Francis academic data publishing business rose 3%, down from growth of 11.9% in H1. Sales were hindered by the drop out of non-recurring data licensing agreements with AI related companies such as Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT).

Revenue for the TechTarget division, bringing together buyers and sellers of tech businesses, had proved positive since late June, leaving 10-month sales down 2.7% compared with a fall of 4.3% during the first half.

An ongoing £350 million share buyback programme now sees 315 million shares having been purchased at an average price of 806p per share.

Accompanying outlook comments point to ongoing sales visibility into 2026 via subscriptions and pre-booked exhibitor deals, with £1 billion plus of committed sales outpacing the position a year ago. 

Broker Morgan Stanley reiterated its ‘overweight’ stance on the shares post the update, raising its target price to 1,070p per share from a previous 1,000p. 

A Capital Markets presentation is scheduled for 17 and 18 November in the UAE (Dubai) and at the heart of Informa’s growing IMEA business. 

ii view

Started in 1998, Informa today employs around 13,000 people. Live B2B Events, which combines its Markets, Connect and Festivals arenas, generated three-quarters of total revenues during the first-half to late June. That was followed by its data focused publisher Taylor & Francis at 16%, with its Nasdaq-listed TechTarget business the balance of 9%.

For investors, geopolitical tensions across the Middle East have not completely gone away. TechTarget Inc (NASDAQ:TTGT) sales remain down 2.7% with its Nasdaq shares down by close to three-quarters so far in 2025. Informa’s ratio of net debt to adjusted profits (EBITDA) sat at the upper end of management’s 1.5-2.5 times range as of the interim results, while a forecast dividend yield of around 2.3% is less than the 5%-plus estimates at media rivals ITV (LSE:ITV) and WPP (LSE:WPP).    

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On the upside, a portfolio of more than 800 specialist, category-leading B2B brands serving over 30 markets and including the IMEA region, continues to fuel growth for its Live events division. AI related companies paying Informa fees for access to its academic data have included Microsoft. Diversity of both product and geographical region exist, while shareholder returns also include a previously increased share buyback programme. 

For now, and despite ongoing risks, a consensus analyst fair value estimate above 1,050p per share and optimistic outlook appear to give grounds for continued hope over the longer term.

Positives: 

• Diversity of businesses
• Over £1.8 billion of share buybacks since 2022

Negatives:

• Uncertain economic outlook
• Exposure to currency moves 

The average rating of stock market analysts:

Buy