Must read: markets remain optimistic over Iran talks, BP, UK retail
ii’s head of investment rounds up the morning’s big news.
14th April 2026 09:38
by Victoria Scholar from interactive investor
US Vice-President JD Vance boarding a plane this week. Photo: Jacquelyn MARTIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.
Global markets
European markets are in the green with the DAX up over 1% and the Stoxx 600 rallying 0.7% reflecting hopes that the US and Iran will resume peace talks. US Vice-President JD Vance said there was progress in the negotiation, helping oil push back below $100 a barrel despite the further uncertainty created by the US blockade of Iran’s ports and the breakdown of peace talks over the weekend.
In terms of stocks, Intertek Group (LSE:ITRK) is surging over 10% in the UK after suggesting it might separate its two businesses. Tobacco companies Imperial Brands (LSE:IMB) and British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) are at the bottom of the FTSE 100 after Imperial’s trading update fails to impress investors.
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US futures are pointing to a flat-to-higher open after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed up 1%. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) closed lower after it reported a 10% drop in FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities) revenue. Investors shrugged off its record equity trading performance and its investment banking advisory fees which soared 89% year-on-year, highlighting a significant bounce-back in M&A.
BP
BP (LSE:BP.) said its oil trading result is expected to be “exceptional” after a “weak” fourth quarter. The oil giant said the ongoing situation in the Middle East means heightened volatility in crude oil natural gas and refined products prices in the quarter. Net debt at the end of the first quarter is expected to increase to around $25-$27 billion (£18.5-£20 billion) versus $22.2 billion in Q4 due to a significant working capital build.
Unsurprisingly, BP is likely to be a key beneficiary from this year’s energy shock that has led to skyrocketing global oil prices. A volatile energy market has supercharged its oil trading performance. During the previous energy shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, BP delivered a record annual profit for 2022 and sharply boosted its dividend. In the first quarter, Brent crude averaged $81.13/bbl, up over 27% versus $63.73/bbl.
The close ties between BP’s fate and the oil price can be a blessing and a curse. Shares have been an undeniable standout stock market winner this year, rallying over 30%. However, it means the company is also highly vulnerable to forces beyond its control. The recent inverse correlation between the oil price and broader equities underscores the value of commodities and commodity stocks as a valuable component of a diversified portfolio during an inflationary energy shock.
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Shares in BP are trading lower today, tracking the weaker oil price as investors cling to hopes of Iran peace talks. Brent crude is trading at around $98.24 a barrel down just over 1%. But it is still up by over 60% year-to-date. Further declines for the oil price would likely drag BP (and Shell (LSE:SHEL)) down with it.
UK BRC retail sales
UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) like-for-like retail sales increased by 3.1% in March year-on-year, outpacing expectations for a 0.9% increase and rebounding from a nine-month low in February of 0.7%. Food sales rose by 6.8% but non-food sales increased by a lacklustre 0.9%.
March’s retail sales benefited from this year’s early Easter which helped deliver an uptick in spending on food ahead of the long weekend family break. However, non-food sales were disappointing with particular weakness in clothing and footwear as consumers continue to hold back on non-essential items.
Plus, the Iran war has reduced global travel among UK holidaymakers either to or through the Middle East, leading to less demand for spending on travel-linked purchases. It is likely that consumers will be cautious in the months ahead as mortgage costs remain higher than expected and retailers put prices up to deal with cost inflation pressures from the energy shock.
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