A positive outlook for ITM Power?
Independent analyst Alistair Strang has run his software to generate new chart forecasts for this popular green energy stock.
29th April 2026 07:41
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Curiously, back in 2021 when ITM Power (LSE:ITM) was around seven quid, we provided criteria which pointed to a potential “bottom” of just 155p. A year later in September 2022, the share price reached our bottom, then the market decided to spare itself the inconvenience of a bounce by gapping the hydrogen-to-power specialist below our target (circled on chart), forcing the share down to 133p and providing sufficient excuse for the next four years of misery. The slightly crazy thing is news that the UK government has taken an investment in the company of around 10% of the equity.
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What’s strange is this story of government backing is being used to explain selling pressure on the share price, whereas in the USA, when the government decides to back a company with equity investment, the result inevitably is for investors to follow suit.
There has also been a fairly substantial campaign in the media, all trying to devalue the share price with talk of a 95p target level, perhaps even 60p if the “market experts” get their way. None of this makes any sense, the company experiencing record income levels for 2026 and issuing improved full-year guidance toward income which equal an approximate 400% rise in just two years. And there is also their contract with Rheinmetall for NATO work, weaving a defence industry layer into this particular scenario.
From our perspective, the share price needs to close below 126p to generate serious concern, taking the price into the land of lower lows. Such a movement would indicate the potential for reversal to an initial 100p with our longer-term secondary calculating at 77p and a probable bounce. But when we consider all the positives, it feels more like a campaign has been launched to manipulate the share price into territory where is could be considered “cheap”.
In other words, we seriously distrust current price movements, suspecting we’re witnessing a fake shuffle ahead of a positive future.
Should this prove to be the case, above 135p anytime soon has the potential to tick the first box in a surprise recovery scenario. If we’re proven correct, such a triggering scenario allows for surprise price recovery to an initial 173p with our longer-term secondary, if beaten, at a future impressive 212p.
Almost regardless of what happens next, we suspect this should prove interesting for the longer term as, realistically, once the price closes above 135p, it opens the door for a future attraction as coming from an amazing 392p.
We think this shall prove worth watching.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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