Bond Boss: the outlook for fixed income in 2026

Many investors are wondering what 2026 might bring for fixed-income markets. Will this finally be a more predictable, income‑driven year? Or should investors expect more surprises?

The reality is more balanced than it has been for some time. Growth looks steady, inflation is easing and interest rates are likely to head lower - all of which help create a healthier backdrop for fixed income. But with governments still running large deficits and geopolitical risks never far from the headlines, it’s not a year to be complacent either.

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Below, we break down the key themes that could shape bond markets in 2026, and what they might mean for investors.

A steady global economy - but in late‑cycle territory

The global economy looks set to keep expanding at a modest pace. Several forces are helping to support this:

• Government spending remains high, especially in areas such as infrastructure, defence and technology
• Businesses are still investing, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation
• Asset prices have been strong, supporting consumer confidence
• Trade tensions have eased, reducing one of the big sources of uncertainty from recent years.

This combination places most major economies firmly in the “late‑cycle” phase, where growth slows but does not stall. Historically, this has been a constructive environment for many types of bonds, particularly corporate credit.

Inflation in Europe is now close to central bank targets. In the US and UK, it is still above target but trending lower. If this continues, it gives central banks room to cut interest rates throughout 2026. At the same time, recession risks appear lower than many feared a year ago.

Put together, this creates a more supportive backdrop for fixed income than investors have experienced in several years.

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Government bonds: are they back?

For much of the past decade, yields on government bonds such as gilts, US Treasuries and German Bunds were extremely low. Today, they are meaningfully higher - and for the first time in years, investors can earn a decent level of income from a traditionally lower-risk asset class.

That’s a significant change. High‑quality government bonds are once again able to play their traditional role as a stabiliser in a portfolio. If markets become choppy or growth disappoints, they can provide valuable downside protection.

However, while interest rate cuts are likely, central banks are not expected to cut rates aggressively unless the economic outlook weakens sharply. This means government bond yields may move within a relatively narrow range during the year. Investors may benefit from keeping some interest rate exposure, but big bets either way may not be rewarded.

There will also be regional differences. In Europe, political uncertainty and debates over fiscal rules may lead to bigger performance gaps between countries. In the US, investors are watching the heavy volume of new Treasury issuance, as well as the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair in May - both of which could influence longer‑term bond yields.

Corporate bonds: quality counts more than ever

Corporate bond markets enter 2026 in solid shape. Most companies have coped reasonably well with the higher rate environment. Profit margins are stable, most balance sheets look healthy and upcoming refinancing needs appear manageable.

Investor demand for investment-grade bonds has been strong, helping to keep credit spreads - the extra yield offered over government bonds - at historically tight levels. Meanwhile, some companies are likely to issue more debt in 2026 to fund large‑scale investment in AI and new technologies.

The key point for investors is that spreads are already tight, so corporate bonds offer less of a cushion if economic conditions worsen. That makes security selection more important than simply owning the market.

Companies with reliable cash flows - for example, utilities or high‑quality financial firms - may continue to offer attractive risk‑adjusted returns. But more cyclical sectors could struggle if demand softens, and businesses facing higher funding costs or big investment needs may see returns come under pressure.

For income seekers, corporate bonds remain a core building block. But 2026 is a year where disciplined research and careful selection are likely to matter more than usual.

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Emerging market debt: attractive but choose carefully

Emerging market bonds could provide some of the most compelling opportunities in 2026. Many emerging market central banks raised interest rates early in the cycle, and inflation in several countries is now falling. This has created an environment where local currency emerging market bonds can offer high real yields - something that stands out in the global fixed-income universe.

Fiscal positions are improving in a number of markets, and investor inflows into the asset class have resumed following several tough years. In addition, US foreign policy actions in countries such as Argentina and Venezuela, and ceasefire efforts in Ukraine, have helped improve investor sentiment.

However, emerging market investing always requires caution. Currencies can be volatile, global sentiment can shift quickly and political uncertainty remains an ever‑present risk. For these reasons, 2026 is more likely to reward selective investing than broad exposure.

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Constructive, but selective year ahead

Fixed income is finally re‑establishing its role as a reliable source of income, diversification and stability. Government bonds offer attractive yields, investment‑grade credit provides steady income potential, and high yield and emerging market debt offer selective opportunities for those who can navigate the risks.

But it is not a straightforward environment. Geopolitics, high government borrowing and tight credit valuations all mean investors need to be thoughtful in how they position their bond exposure.

A balanced approach - combining high‑quality assets with selective opportunities, diversifying across regions and sectors, and focusing on company and country fundamentals - is likely to be the most effective way to navigate fixed-income markets in 2026.

Jonathan Mondillo is global head of fixed income at Aberdeen.