eyeQ: time to book profits on Amazon?
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Now, it reviews its recent successful buy signal.
4th November 2025 11:34
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
The Amazon Prime logo on a truck in Antwerp, Belgium, last month. Photo: JONAS ROOSENS/BELGA MAG/AFP via Getty Images.
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Amazon
Macro Relevance: 78%
Model Value: $234.20
Fair Value Gap: +7.8% premium to model value
Data correct as at 4 November 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
On 16 October, eyeQ’s smart machine triggered a buy signal on Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN). The stock has rallied over 18% since then.
On the charts, Amazon has broken out and technical analysis would suggest as long as the stock is above the $242 level, the outlook is constructive. Chart momentum has been a key driver of equities recently, so this is an important consideration. So, strong earnings and chart momentum point to additional upside.
But it is worth noting that this rally has taken the stock nearly 8% rich to macro conditions. Having been cheap to the broad macro environment last month, this earnings-driven rally has now seen the stock price catch up and then overshoot into macro rich territory.
eyeQ model value is currently $234, so this fair value gap is sufficiently extended to flash a bear signal. The micro and charting angle may well dominate in the months ahead, but for tactical investors fearing equities are vulnerable to a near-term setback, the macro perspective suggests Amazon is due a breather.
It may be prudent to book some profits on October’s bullish call and look for better entry levels to re-enter.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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Disclosure
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