eyeQ: time to buy or sell Shell shares?
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Here’s what it thinks of this oil major.
8th April 2026 11:05
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
Photo: Kristian Tuxen Ladegaard Berg/NurPhoto via Getty Images.
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Shell
Macro Relevance: 74%
Model Value: 3,438.48p
Fair Value Gap: -3.4% discount to model value
Data correct as at 8 April 2026. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
While some uncertainty remains, the ceasefire in Iran is good news and markets will hope the worst-case scenario (oil to $200, stagflation, rate hikes) has become a lot less likely. As such, the gunshot reaction will be equities up, the dollar and bond yields down.
Within equities, the recent winners (energy stocks) and losers (travel stocks, airlines) will probably see recent moves unwind somewhat.
Shell’s share price is down this morning on exactly that logic, but it’s worth stepping back and looking at the bigger picture.
From a bottom-up perspective, their trading statement today ahead of next month’s earnings was upbeat. Oil trading results were “significantly higher” and operations in the Middle East appear to have proven resilient in the face of the war.
From a top-down perspective, eyeQ would highlight two things.
A macro relevance score of 74% means Shell (LSE:SHEL) is back in a macro regime for the first time in almost a year.
Second, macro fair value hit a fresh high just before the ceasefire. Higher energy prices, inflation expectations and the move in the gilt yields all provided a macro tailwind to the stock price.
Now all those drivers will move into reverse and already this morning eyeQ model value is down around 150p. The one consolation is the market is moving further and faster, taking the stock 3.4% cheap to aggregate macro conditions.
That’s not a big enough fair value gap to trigger a bullish signal. Plus, this relief rally probably means there’s more air to come out of the energy safe-haven plays in the very near term.
But with macro back in charge, some value starting to build, and the Middle East far from “solved”, Shell is one to watch.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
These third-party research articles are provided by eyeQ (Quant Insight). interactive investor does not make any representation as to the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information provided, nor do we accept any liability for any losses, costs, liabilities or expenses that may arise directly or indirectly from your use of, or reliance on, the information (except where we have acted negligently, fraudulently or in wilful default in relation to the production or distribution of the information).
The value of your investments may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest.
Equity research is provided for information purposes only. Neither eyeQ (Quant Insight) nor interactive investor have considered your personal circumstances, and the information provided should not be considered a personal recommendation. If you are in any doubt as to the action you should take, please consult an authorised financial adviser.
Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.
Details of all recommendations issued by ii during the previous 12-month period can be found here.
ii adheres to a strict code of conduct. Contributors may hold shares or have other interests in companies included in these portfolios, which could create a conflict of interests. Contributors intending to write about any financial instruments in which they have an interest are required to disclose such interest to ii and in the article itself. ii will at all times consider whether such interest impairs the objectivity of the recommendation.
In addition, individuals involved in the production of investment articles are subject to a personal account dealing restriction, which prevents them from placing a transaction in the specified instrument(s) for a period before and for five working days after such publication. This is to avoid personal interests conflicting with the interests of the recipients of those investment articles.