eyeQ: two stocks in same sector with very different macro DNA
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Here, it considers two companies updating investors this week.
14th April 2026 10:00
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
PageGroup
Macro Relevance: 71%
Model Value: 132.64p
Fair Value Gap: 0%
Robert Walters
Macro Relevance: 38%
Model Value: 88.60p
Fair Value Gap: -3.61% discount to model value
Data correct as at 14 April 2026. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
The big focus as we move through this earnings season will be on how firms navigate the energy shock emanating from conflict in Iran. For some it’s a boost.
Today, BP (LSE:BP.) described trading conditions as “exceptional”. For others, it will be a tax - either on their own costs, or on their customers who tighten budgets as a result.
Recruiter PageGroup (LSE:PAGE) provide an update this morning and is on the fence. No impact so far, the potential fall-out is big but also incredibly uncertain. Fellow recruiter Robert Walters (LSE:RWA) report tomorrow.
But, as always, while the company’s own forward guidance is critical, so too are the macro forces hitting these stocks. And from the macro perspective, the two companies look quite different.
PageGroup is back in a macro regime for the first time in a year. There’s no valuation edge of note, but what is interesting is the bounce in model value. Macro has been a headwind to PAGE in 2026 - eyeQ model value fell 49% in the first quarter of the year. But, since the end of March, that’s flipped and model value is up nearly 12%.
The stock wants lower oil and lower inflation, which, for a period last week, seemed to be possible. If the ceasefire holds and the energy-induced spike in inflation calms down, this new macro momentum could continue.
Robert Walters is not a macro trade right now; eyeQ macro relevance is only 38%. Its model value has stopped falling but the orange line in the chart below has yet to stage any meaningful bounce. Energy and inflation are less prominent as drivers; an orderly corporate credit market is more important.
Crudely, PageGroup needs a low-inflation environment and Robert Walters needs easy financial conditions. Two stocks operating in the same sector, but with very different macro DNA. Understanding the difference is critical.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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