ii view: copper miner Antofagasta makes more money than ever

Workers at Antofagasta’s Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile. Credit: Antofagasta.

Full-year results to 31 December

• Revenue up 30% to $8.6 billion (£6.4 billion)
• Adjusted profit (EBITDA) up 52% to $5.2 billion
• Final dividend of 48 US cents per share
• Total 2025 dividend up 106% to 64.6 US cents per share
• Net debt of $2.75 billion, up from $1.63 billion in late 2024

Guidance:

• Continues to expect annual production of between 650,000 and 700,000 tonnes in 2026

Chief executive Iván Arriagada said:

“Copper’s fundamental value continues to be demonstrated through sustained demand growth, driven by the global structural trends of energy security and electrification, which saw copper achieve record prices in 2025.”

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ii round-up:

Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) today reported record annual profits, with the copper miner maintaining expectations for production of between 650,000 and 700,000 tonnes this year compared with 653,700 tonnes in 2025.

A 42% increase in the price of copper in 2025 helped Antofagasta’s revenues soar 30% to $8.6 billion (£6.4 billion), pushing adjusted profits (EBITDA) up 52% to $5.2 billion. An ongoing policy to pay out 50% of earnings per share as dividends means a final payment of 48 US cents per share and a total for 2025 of 64.6 US cents, more than double the payout in 2024.

Shares in the FTSE 100 company fell 3% in UK trading having come into these latest results up by a tenth so far in 2026. They doubled during 2025 and have regular hit record highs since last September. The FTSE 100 index rose by just over a fifth last year, while silver and gold miner Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) soared by more than 400%.  

Antofagasta owns major stakes in and operates four copper mines in Chile. Major construction works at both Centinela and Los Pelambres leave the miner predicting a near one-third increase in copper production over the medium term.

Investment of $3.7 billion during 2025 is expected to have peaked, with expenditure for 2026 forecast at $3.4 billion. 

Group net debt of $2.75 billion rose from $1.63 billion a year ago, although the rise in profits leaves the ratio of net debt to profits at 0.53 times, little changed from 0.48 times in late 2024.

A first quarter 2026 production update is scheduled for 15 April. 

ii view:

Started as a railway operator in 1888 and diversifying into mining during the 1980s, Antofagasta today employs around 8,000 people. Highlighting itself as one of the world's largest pure-play copper producers, the FTSE 100 company has a mineral resource base of more than 21 billion tonnes, including more than 6 billion tonnes and 5 billion tonnes at its Los Pelambres and Centinela operations respectively.

For investors, uncertainty about the economic outlook caused by US trade tariffs, plus ongoing property related challenges for China’s economy are not to be forgotten. A share price-to-net asset value comfortably above the three-year average may suggest the shares are not obviously cheap. Anto’s concentration on copper contrasts with the diversity of commodities produced at other miners such as Glencore (LSE:GLEN) and Rio Tinto Ordinary Shares (LSE:RIO), while currency risks remain a constant given commodities priced in US dollars, Chilean operations and a pound sterling share price. 

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On the upside, a focus on efficiency persists, with savings and productivity improvements of $115 million made in 2025. Ongoing construction projects are expected to see output rise by 30% over the medium term. A net debt-to-profit ratio of less than one indicates a robust balance sheet, while a forecast dividend yield in the region of 1.5% is not to be ignored.

In all, and despite ongoing risks, energy transition and renewable energy systems backed by governments and which rely on copper, should be positive for this South American miner. 

Positives: 

• Expanding operations
• Focus on costs

Negatives:

• Less diverse commodity portfolio than many rivals
• Currency movements can hinder performance

The average rating of stock market analysts:

Hold