ii view: Experian sales excel but shares slump to two-year low
Shares in this credit services provider have significantly underperformed the FTSE 100 index over the last six months. Buy, sell, or hold?
21st January 2026 15:48
by Keith Bowman from interactive investor
Third-quarter trading update to 31 December
- Organic currency adjusted revenues up 8%
- Total currency adjusted revenues up 10%
Guidance:
- Continues to expect full-year organic currency adjusted revenue growth towards the end of a 6-8% range
Chief executive Brian Cassin said:
"With continued strong momentum, our full year expectations are unchanged. We continue to leverage our scaled proprietary data assets, strong technology foundations and deep expertise to deliver on our strategic priorities and crystallise exciting new AI opportunities."
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ii round-up:
Experian (LSE:EXPN) today detailed sales that beat City forecasts, with the global information and credit services company maintaining full-year forecasts.
Demand for auto loans and mortgages at its core North American business helped drive group-wide third-quarter adjusted sales up 8%. That’s down from 9% in the prior second quarter but ahead of analyst estimates of 7.7%. Experian continues to predict annual adjusted sales to late March near the top end of a 6-8% growth range.
Shares in the FTSE 100 company fell 5% in UK trading having come into this latest news down by a quarter over the last six months. The FTSE 100 index is up 12% over that time. US rival Equifax Inc (NYSE:EFX) has also fallen by a fifth.
Often acquiring data for free from consumers and selling it to other businesses, Experian’s data regularly assists credit providers in offering loans prudently.
North American business to business (B2B) sales grew 11% during the quarter, the same as the second quarter, although that's down from growth of 12% in Q1. The region accounts for 68% of total group revenues.
B2B sales at its next biggest region, Latin America, accounting for 14% of sales, were flat, as sales have been since Q1. Ongoing interest rate uncertainty is expected to leave current Q4 sales little improved.
UK and Irish B2B sales, generating 11% of total sales, also remained flat. European and Asian sales, at 7% of the total, improved by 3%, having grown by 5% and 7% in the previous two quarters respectively.
Experian's adjusted sales direct to consumers climbed 10% from a year ago, slowing from growth of 13% in the prior two quarters.
Broker Morgan Stanley reiterated its ‘overweight’ stance on the shares post the update, flagging Experian as a ‘top pick.’
ii view:
Began in 1996, Experian today employs over 20,000 people across more than 30 countries. The group sells data to credit-granting institutions, individuals and other users, along with analytical tools and marketing data. Business or B2B sales generated most revenues at 72% during this latest quarter, with direct-to-consumer sales the balance.
For investors, the outlook for interest rates remains crucial, with some Wall Street economists predicting only small reductions in US rates from here before another upcycle potentially begins. Sales away from the core North American region are largely flat. The impact of AI on Experian’s business is hard to predict, while a previous data breach underlined the importance of cyber security.
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On the upside, demand for the core North American region has remained robust. Relatively low rates of unemployment across many of Experian’s markets should help support demand for credit. Product innovation and the group’s own AI initiatives continue to be pushed, while growth has periodically been boosted via bolt-on acquisitions.
For now, increased economic outlook uncertainty and concerns about consumer health against the backdrop of potentially more tariffs as America muscles in on Greenland. The share price weakness is worrying too. That said, the increasing value of data and a consensus analyst estimate of fair value above £42 per share are likely to keep investors interested.
Positives:
- Company enjoys both product and geographical diversity
- Growing free consumer memberships
Negatives:
- Uncertain economic outlook
- Subject to currency movements
The average rating of stock market analysts:
Buy
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