While a downturn is possible, there is a good chance of strong price recovery too.
Sometimes, a throwaway comment can prove a little distressing. We last reviewed Eurasia Mining (LSE:EUA) six months ago, being pretty positive for its long-term future.
As is our habit, we completed the round-up with a single sentence: “To finish on an easy note, the price needs to fall below 26p to now cause utter panic.”
Needless to say, in January this year the share price decided to explore what could happen if it dropped below 26p.
It hit a bottom at 14p and bounced, fairly unconvincingly, creating the sort of drama we dislike.
The immediate situation for this miner is a little scary. Presently trading around 24p, the price only needs to drill below 23.5p to enter a cycle where reversal to 19.5p calculates as very possible.
We'd hope for a rebound at such a level, if only due to the presence of the immediate red uptrend since the start of 2020.
However, we rather suspect the share price will attempt 14.7p in an attempt to scare investors silly and shake loose some shares. Given this level is marginally above the prior low, substantial hope exists for proper price recovery should this level make an appearance.
Importantly, and perhaps crucially, we calculate ‘ultimate bottom’ on this at 12p. This represents the level below which we can no longer calculate numbers. In most situations, should one of our ultimate bottoms break ,the share price remains trapped in a twilight zone, with everyone telling each other a miracle will surely happen.
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This time we'll finish on a better note, thanks to the pretty contrived price movements visible against this share price. The entire scenario for reversal is perhaps just too obvious, making us suspect the converse may be just around the corner.
Any excuse to trade above 30p should be interesting, apparently capable of triggering recovery to an initial 41p. Visually, such an ambition makes a lot of sense. Our longer-term secondary calculates at 54p, an aspiration that is truly amazing, as it would take the share to price levels not seen for more than 20 years.
Needless to say, while we believe in our 41p calculation, we've considerable doubts about our workings which produced the 54p figure.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and “top-secret” software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know “how it worked” with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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