Must read: oil, gold, UK GDP

ii’s head of investment rounds up the morning’s big news.

15th January 2026 09:16

by Victoria Scholar from interactive investor

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GLOBAL MARKETS

After the FTSE 100 closed at fresh highs on Wednesday, the UK blue-chip index is trading flat amid a mixed European open. Semiconductor stocks are rallying thanks to strong results from TSMC, sending shares in ASML Holding NV (EURONEXT:ASML) sharply higher. In the UK, Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) is the top loser on the FTSE 100 following declines for gold and silver, while Schroders (LSE:SDR) is up over 8.5% after it said it expects higher annual profits.

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US futures are pointing to a mixed open after declines on Wall Street last night driven by banks and tech stocks. Disappointing earnings from Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) dragged shares down 4.6% and 3.3% respectively, weighing on the broader US banking sector. Banks were already struggling this month after Trump said he wants to cap credit card costs. Meanwhile, investors have been rotating out of mega cap tech into other sectors amid valuation concerns.

Oil prices are trading sharply lower after Trump signalled he is not taking military action against Iran. Brent crude and WTI are down over 3%, declining for the first day in six amid a week of heightened volatility. BP (LSE:BP.) is also trading near the bottom of the FTSE 100.

UK GDP

UK GDP grew by 0.3% in November, beating forecasts for growth of 0.1% and swinging back into positive territory following a 0.1% decline in October. In another positive development, September’s growth reading was also revised higher from -0.1% to +0.1%.

Despite November’s economic uncertainty with consumers and businesses in wait-and-see mode, the UK economy managed to deliver better-than-expected growth. This was mainly thanks to the reopening of Jaguar Land Rover’s car plants which boosted car manufacturing by 25.5%. This follows JLR’s brutal cyber-attack which was estimated to cost the UK economy around £1.9 billion. It was also a busy month for accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities in November ahead of the Budget with 4.6% growth boosting service sector output. However, construction output was very week in November, sliding by 1.3% and October’s reading was revised sharply lower from -0.6% to -1.2%.

Despite the doom and gloom, there are some positive signs emerging for the UK economy, with an improvement in growth and easing inflation in November. External Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor said UK inflation and interest rates should fall this year, thanks to easing domestic cost pressures and global trade diversion due to US tariffs.

However, while an improvement in growth is of course welcome, the Bank of England will be looking for a goldilocks scenario, not too hot and not too cold, with any signs that growth is accelerating too fast likely to have a negative read-across for rate cut expectations.

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