Wild’s Winter Portfolios 2025: winning stocks revealed

We’ve been running these winter portfolios for over a decade. Both show strong returns over most years and would have generated big profits if you’d reinvested winnings every winter – between 1 November and 30 April.

The strategy is based on historical performance showing stock markets typically do better over the six cold winter months than the lazy summer period. We just feed in the data to identify a handful of stocks to create a portfolio for cautious investors and one for those comfortable with a little more risk.  

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It is important to understand that these are data-driven portfolios. There is no manual intervention; the portfolios pick themselves from data run by mathematician Stephen Eckett each year. The five FTSE 350 shares that have risen most winters over the past decade and have the best average return, get a place in Wild’s Consistent Winter Portfolio. 

Buying this year’s portfolio of most reliable performers at the very end of October or 1 November, then selling on 30 April for the past 10 winters, would have generated an average return of 11.7%, excluding dividends. The benchmark FTSE 350 index returned 4.3%.

Adding a little more risk increases potential returns. We do this by relaxing the entry criteria for Wild’s Aggressive Winter Portfolio to a minimum eight positive winters in the past decade. From the list supplied by Mr Eckett, we use the five FTSE 350 stocks with the highest average winter profit over 10 years. The new basket of higher-risk shares would have delivered an average winter return of 16.6%.

• Find out what Wild’s Winter Portfolios are, how they work and why
• Visit the Wild's Winter Portfolios home page here

With 11 winter portfolios now complete, we are in a good position to assess how well the strategy performs over time.

Both portfolios had a five-year winning streak from launch in 2014, outperforming the FTSE 350, which was only ended by the Covid pandemic towards the end of winter 2019-20. Since then, there have been three big wins (2020, 2022 and 2023) and two losses (2021 and 2024). Clearly, Covid had a significant impact on stock market behaviour at the time, and it remains to be seen whether it has permanently disrupted established trends.

The portfolios certainly did not perform well last year. It’s difficult to identify any special reason for that, and it could perhaps be just a statistical outlier that may happen occasionally. As I said in my recent article: “I can’t blame the UK Budget or even President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, it was just a poor year for certain stocks which, on paper, really should have done much better.

“Some share price rallies just ran out of steam, other constituents had sped higher ahead of the winter portfolio launch, while a takeover came too late to save Spectris (LSE:SXS) from winning the wooden spoon.”

After delivering a total return of 10.6% and 26.8% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, Wild’s Consistent Winter Portfolio lost 13.7% in 2024. Wild’s Aggressive Winter Portfolio, up 19.7% and 17.9% in the previous two years, fell 5.7%. The FTSE 350 index followed gains of 12.6% and 14.2% with a total return of 5.8% in 2024-25.

Whenever we start the new portfolios, we like it to come off the back of a weak summer season - from 30 April to 31 October – because it further validates the strategy of seasonal investing. However, global stock markets have been on a tear since the recovery from April’s tariff crash began, with the FTSE 350 up 26% to a record high. Three constituents of the consistent portfolio are up double digits over the past six months, which contributes to an average gain of 12.2% for the portfolio. Two big summer winners in the aggressive portfolio are partially offset by a substantial loser, limiting the summer average return to 3.2%.

Risks for this year’s winter portfolios

It seems like every year I’ve mentioned the risk of recession, and every year it hasn’t happened. I must mention it again, although the likelihood appears slim. Borrowing costs and inflation will remain an issue, and it’s anyone’s guess what President Trump will do next. Same with China, whether it be tariffs, military conflict or something else.

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A big talking point now though is what’s being called an AI bubble. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on AI and valuations in the tech sector are at historically high levels. Given the Nasdaq Composite index is up 40% since the April low and the S&P has risen 26%, investors are worried about the possibility of a stock market correction or worse. While it’s true that a lot of stocks look expensive on traditional valuation metrics, there are clearly still plenty of willing buyers, for now. Of course, that could change, we’ll see.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about equities, but it might be that the strong summer has exhausted demand for some of our constituent stocks. We’ve also got an Autumn Budget pencilled in for 26 November, with plenty of room for disappointment if Chancellor Rachel Reeves makes a wrong move.

Wild’s Consistent Winter Portfolio 2025-26

Source: Stephen Eckett, ShareScope. Summer returns as at 29 October 2025. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

A poor year for last season’s consistent winter stocks means a completely new look for the 2025 edition. Self-storage firm Safestore Holdings Ordinary Shares (LSE:SAFE) and electronic components company discoverIE Group (LSE:DSCV) both suffered heavy losses, putting them out of the running this time. Spectris fell sharply too, before attracting a takeover bid at a big premium over the summer.

Engineering contractor Keller Group (LSE:KLR) and food packer Hilton Food Group (LSE:HFG) also ended last winter in negative territory, although they have found a place in the aggressive portfolio given they have still risen in eight of the past 10 winters. Remember, stocks must have risen at least nine winters over the past decade to be considered for the more reliable consistent portfolio.

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So, this year’s consistent basket of shares includes lots of new faces. Transport operator FirstGroup (LSE:FGP) appears in both portfolios this time after rallying almost 30% last winter. It’s only fallen in one of the past 10 winters, back in 2019-20 when it inevitably suffered at the hands of the Covid pandemic.

Computacenter (LSE:CCC), AG Barr (LSE:BAG), Admiral Group (LSE:ADM) and Halma (LSE:HLMA) posted gains last winter of 10%, 11%, 27% and 11% respectively. They’ve also registered winter losses just once in the past decade, with 2021 proving a difficult one for Computacenter, Admiral and Halma. 

All have done well over the past year in share price terms, although AG Barr has moved sideways for the past six months. So has Admiral, although it spiked near to a record high briefly in August. Halma still trades near its best levels, while Computacenter changes hands for prices rarely seen in the past year.

Wild’s Aggressive Winter Portfolio 2025-26

Source: Stephen Eckett, ShareScope. Summer returns as at 29 October 2025. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Every stock in last year’s aggressive winter portfolio posted losses over the six months, which would inevitably make it hard for them to win a place this time. We wave goodbye to Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO), ICG (LSE:ICG), Morgan Sindall Group (LSE:MGNS)l and PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (LSE:PPH) (the only winter portfolio stock to post a gain last year if dividends are included).

Keller, which appeared in both portfolios a year ago, is the only constituent to keep its place. The engineering contractor gets into the aggressive portfolio in 2025 because, despite a 13.2% drop last winter, it still boasts a record of eight positive winter returns in the past decade with an impressive average return.

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There’s another familiar face among the four new constituents in the aggressive portfolio. Like Keller, Hilton Food Group also made it into 2024’s consistent basket of shares, but a decade of strong average winter returns mean it’s still a solid stock for the higher-risk portfolio.

Three companies you won’t be familiar with in the winter portfolios are FTSE 100 fantasy wargames firm Games Workshop Group (LSE:GAW), defence contractor BAE Systems (LSE:BA.) and FTSE 250 transport operator FirstGroup (LSE:FGP). All have done well this year, the first two making record highs and the latter recovering to prices not seen since 2012. They’ve all eased slightly since but are hopefully ready to resume their uptrend through the winter.